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The Next Great Depression

Taking it down a few notches today, I enjoyed a nice cigar from the Dominican Republic this afternoon out on my balcony here in the Windy City. Kind of bummed out that one of my suppliers raised their prices, though. Too bad. I almost pulled a JFK and ordered a stockpile of cigars last year after Washington Democrats were looking to increase the tax cap from a nickel per cigar to $10 a stick— or 20,413%. Unbelievable. By the way, never heard of the JFK cigar story? Well, if you have time, I highly recommend you watch the following video (a little over 3 minutes long) of Pierre Salinger, JFK’s secretary, telling the story (and other cigar-related ones)…

YouTube Video Link

While puffing away, I got the chance to listen to a portion of last weekend’s “Financial Sense Newshour” broadcast. Jim Puplava and John Loeffler have been talking about a financial crisis window for a while now, which they expect to take place between 2009 and 2012. Puplava and Loeffler had this to say last weekend:

JOHN: So looking forward, say, 12 to 24 months, we would say, given where we’re going, we can probably look towards higher gold and metals prices; there will be another money crisis – another currency crisis – and all it would seem like they’re [Congress] doing right now is staving off the day of reckoning. Let’s face it, we said that 2008, that’s the ramp up to 2009 to 2012 – it’s accelerated a little more than I thought it would be and it’s a little more violent than I thought it would be, but nevertheless we’re still on that; and somewhere in that window, all of this stuff begins to fall apart and you can’t tell what’s going to trigger it, but it will go.

JIM: It’s going to trigger. And I think that the thing that’s scaring the heck out of them [Congress] is all of this is starting to unfold – whether it’s $4 gasoline at the pumps, headline inflation with foods, banks going under, stock market manipulation – all of this – and they’re desperately just trying to buy time to get elected because you’ve got 535 people in Congress who are worried about keeping their jobs. And what I think is going to happen is as this worsens the country is going to lurch very hard to the left in the November election (we’re going to get into this in the next segment) and then as a result of the policies that are going to put us in place, that is going to give us our great depression that I anticipate.

By 2010, the United States is going to be in a major depression.

And then, what is going to happen is we’re going to lurch – almost do a 180 degree turn – and lurch very hard to the right as one disaster after another unfolds upon the country.

Great cigar, not so great forecast…

Source:

Financial Sense Newshour
3rd Hour, Part 2
FinancialSense.com, July 19, 2008

Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices

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Washington’s Bear Hunt

From all the action coming out of the nation’s capital today, you’d almost think the various government entities in Washington coordinated efforts against the oil, dollar, and housing bears. Almost.

First, it was crude oil. Senate Democrats, led by Senators Byron Dorgan and Harry Reid, rolled out the “Stop Excessive Speculation Act” to scare off oil speculators, who they blame for high prices.

Crude for August delivery, scheduled to expire Tuesday, dropped $3.09, or 2.3%, to settle at $127.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since June 5.

Ironically, later in the day a task force chaired by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (the agency assigned with investigating/punishing speculators in the bill) found that fundamental supply-and-demand factors, rather than speculators (as the politicians claimed), were most likely to blame for the high prices. Doh!

Next, dollar bears were targeted. Reuters reported:

The dollar rallied Tuesday, after a Federal Reserve official suggested that U.S. rates may have to rise to stem inflation and a top Treasury official repeated that a strong currency is in the interest of the country.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson reiterated on Tuesday that a strong dollar is important to U.S. interests and the underlying strength of the economy, as well as policies aimed at shoring up confidence, would be reflected in currency markets. At the same time, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said rising inflation could force the Fed to start raising interest rates even before labor and financial markets recover.

Gold for August delivery dropped $15.20 to end at $948.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Rising interest rates? Strong dollar policy? Looks a lot like jawboning to me. But don’t take my word for it. On July 15, Reuters ran a piece about legendary investor George Soros. From the interview:

All told, Soros said Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, is in a bind.

“When he recognized the seriousness of the credit crisis, he acted very radically lowering interest rates and he used the tools that are at his disposal,” Soros said. However, now the “armory” is depleted, he said adding that Bernanke can’t lower interest rates because of the effect it would have on the dollar and he can’t raise interest rates because of the looming recession. Soros said.

“Therefore, his options are limited — he is boxed in.”

And how many times have we heard about this supposed “strong dollar policy” of ours? Actions speak louder than words, right? Back on March 17, Soros’ former partner, Jim Rogers, said during a Bloomberg Television interview:

Now, please, do we even bother reporting that anymore? Poor Hank Paulson, had a reasonable education, and a reasonably-good career, head of Goldman Sachs, now he goes around the world making a fool out of himself. Goes around saying we want a strong dollar, the next day he goes to China and says we want a weak dollar, and then he goes to Japan and says we want a weak dollar. I mean, you have to feel sorry for the guy. At least, I do.

Finally, it was housing naysayers who fell under the gun. From the CNBC website this afternoon:

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said America’s housing market could turn a corner and begin recovering within months, but it will take longer to resolve all housing-related problems.

“Obviously, it will go on beyond months with some of the issues in the housing market, but I believe we can get to the point within months where we turn the corner on housing,” Paulson said in a televised interview with Fox Business Network.

Sound familiar to anyone? From my post “Paulson Weighs In On Housing” from July 2, 2007:

Today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spoke to Reuters about a number of economic issues, including housing. Paulson said the U.S. economy is healthy, despite problems with the subprime mortgage sector. The former chairman of Goldman Sachs stated that the downturn in the housing market is “at or near the bottom. It’s had a significant impact on the economy. No one is forecasting when, with any degree of clarity, that the upturn is going to come other than it’s at or near the bottom.” Beyond subprime mortgage woes, Paulson declared that the financial markets looked sound. He said, “Markets are volatile. I haven’t seen a single thing that surprises me – it’s hard to surprise me.”

DJIA down 1,933 points since then, S&P 500 down 243 points, global credit crunch, $453 billion of write-downs, Bear Stearns, IndyMac, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac… surprise!

Sources:

“Dollar Jumps on Paulson, Plosser Comments”
Reuters, July 22, 2008

“Soros says Fannie, Freddie crisis not the last”
Jennifer Ablan
Reuters, July 15, 2008

Jim Rogers Interview
Bloomberg News Video
Bloomberg, March 17, 2008

“Paulson: Housing Market Could Turn Corner Soon”
CNBC, July 22, 2008

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No Recession? Bunk!

Does anyone still believe in the economic data being churned out by the federal government? From MarketWatch last Thursday:

Brian Pretti, chief investment strategist for East Bay-based Mechanics Bank, has one word for those who keep saying the nation is not yet in a recession: “Bunk.”

“We are still wringing out the excesses of the financial sector,” Pretti says, “and not only is the period of reconciliation–or deleveraging–not over, but we will be living with it for some time to come. We’re in a recession; there’s no other word for it.”

Then why don’t the numbers tell the story?

“Officially, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative, inflation-adjusted, gross domestic product (GDP) growth. But if you use the wrong inflation assumptions (called the deflator in the GDP reports), the conclusions are wrong, too.”

To illustrate, Pretti points to recent deflator factors used by the Fed to estimate GDP. “For the first quarter 2008, it was 2.7%, for the fourth quarter 2007, 2.4%, and 1% for third quarter 2007,” he says. “Where did the government come up with those numbers that are quite different than the CPI numbers? Since September 2007, the price of crude oil is up 100%; retail gasoline up 69%; natural gas 95%; and the Commodity Research Bureau index for foodstuffs is up 27%. The true nature of inflation in the US has been anywhere between 4-5%, and that means we’ve already been in a recession for a number of quarters.”

The year-over-year inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rests at 4.9% as of the June report, which was released yesterday. It highlights Pretti’s point–and calls into question the prior figures that have been used. “No wonder the financial markets aren’t buying the idea that the economy is ‘holding up,’” Pretti says. “Their negative behavior is telling us headline GDP numbers may not exactly be reflecting reality!

Source:

“Wishful Thinking Aside, It’s a Recession, Folks”
MarketWatch, July 17, 2008

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Holy Cow! Not Another Economic Forecast Devoid Of Evidence

This morning, I read a piece by Marshall Eckblad of the Dow Jones Newswires on the CNN Money website. Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Ken Lewis shared his outlook on the U.S. economy and housing market earlier today, after which Eckblad wrote:

Chief Executive Ken Lewis said Monday that the U.S. economy would see “sluggishness” through the rest of 2008 but eventually would stabilize this year and then begin its recovery in the early part of next year. Lewis made the comments during a conference call with analysts to explain the bank’s second-quarter earnings results…

Lewis said one component of those optimistic forecasts is his projection that the peak of the housing crisis is growing closer. “We see housing price depreciation being mostly over this year, maybe going into next year,” Lewis said.

Sound familiar? It should. Consider the following from Mr. Lewis:

In an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, Bank of America’s Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said the U.S. economy will pick up speed due to a recovery in the housing sector. Lewis predicted, “You’ll see the economy begin to pick up in the third and fourth quarters,” and the slowdown in home sales is “just about to be over.” He went on to say that the housing market will begin to improve in the next month or two, forestalling a recession, according to Bloomberg. Lewis believes that job growth will lift home prices and reinvigorate construction by early 2008.

I wrote this over a year ago on June 21, 2007.

The Wall Street Journal’s Mark Gongloff pointed out yesterday that some individuals keep calling for a turnaround in the economy, housing market, what have you, only to be proven wrong time and time again. Gongloff said:

Like Chicago Cubs fans always looking to the next season, there are analysts who have been calling for a turnaround for months despite evidence to the contrary, yelling their hearts out for what so far has been a losing cause.

According to their theory, this has all been a fever dream, a midcycle slowdown like the one the economy suffered in 1998, when stocks briefly swooned, but the technology bubble quickly went right back to inflating. This is the same crowd who dismissed the collapse of the housing market because it’s just a small part of gross domestic product and who said the subprime mortgage meltdown would be no big deal.

And now, $400 billion in losses and one bear market later, they’re still calling for the rosy outcome…

Maybe these individuals should pay closer attention to the evidence. Or use better evidence. Take FOXBusiness.com’s Brian Sullivan for example. This morning, he wrote “Still Looking for the Recession” morning and said:

I went to Atlantic City this weekend for my birthday and stayed at the new Water Club by Borgata…

Whoa! You lost me at Water Club by Borgata. Atlantic City’s first cosmopolitan hotel, which bills itself as “the ultimate resort destination,” charges $479 a room on Fridays and $529 on Saturdays during the summer.

Two problems with this piece of “evidence.” One, the place is new. A good number of East Coasters, like their counterparts along the Pacific, have a reputation for being trend-followers. Let me guess, the place was probably packed, right?

Two. If you can afford room rates like these, it would probably require a great deal more economic pain to cancel your stay, as opposed to what Joe Six-Pack and Suzy Soccer Mom could tolerate. I don’t think we’re at that point (yet).

From the reports I’ve been getting, wealthy Americans have been doing okay when it comes to spending and buying homes. As a matter of fact, I for one believe the purchase of high-end properties by the rich is what’s been skewing median prices upwards in some areas across the country. It’s not that the housing market is getting any better— it’s just that the rich are buying (what they see as) bargain-priced properties.

One more thing. $1,008 a weekend for a hotel room? As long-time announcer Harry Caray of the Chicago Cubs used to say, “Holy Cow!”

Sources:

“2nd UPDATE: Bank of America CEO Sees Economy Rebound In 2009”
Marshall Eckblad
CNN Money, July 21, 2008

“The Economy: How Bad Can It Get?”
Mark Gongloff
Wall Street Jorunal, July 20, 2008

“Still Looking for the Recession”
Brian Sullivan
FOXBusiness, July 21, 2008


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The Pollyannas Have Their Day (And Say)

“Don’t believe the mainstream media. now is the time to buy. we buy when others sell and sell one others want to buy. even with whats happening in the real estate market, right now is the time to buy real estate too. do it right and cash in big.”

-Comment left on Yahoo! Finance website

Despite a logjam of bad economic news lately, it seems the “Pollyannas” (referring to an overly-optimistic character from a children’s story of the same name) are running rampant on Wall Street and elsewhere. Emboldened by a Dow Jones Industrial Average that has risen 484.12 points since Wednesday’s opening, “don’t worry, be happy” is their war cry. Consider the following headlines and snippets from mainstream media outlets the past couple of days:

“Buy Now, Don’t Regret Later”
Yahoo! Finance, July 16

But perhaps we do have to be bold more often, and maybe even a little foolhardy when our gut tells us that this is important, or when we come across something alluring in our adventures. If something enchanting catches our eye — whether it’s a Ukrainian samovar or just a hat on your way to work — maybe it’s best to get caught up in the euphoria of the moment.

“This Real Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived”
SmartMoney, July 15

Noted market experts such as Pimco bond-fund manager Bill Gross and economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com predict the meltdown in housing will continue for many months, with home prices declining by 10% or more from today’s depressed levels… Yet, such pessimism appears overdone, based on much recent data. Sales of existing homes are showing tentative signs of increasing, while the plunge in prices likely is nearing an end.

“Mean Street: Pollyannas of the World Unite! It Is Time to Buy”
Wall Street Journal’s Deal Journal, July 15

All this bad news can only mean one thing: It is time to buy.

Pollyannas of the World Unite! You have nothing to lose but your chains of media-induced panic.

Of course, there is no getting around the seriousness of the situation, given runaway oil prices and the sorry state of the nation’s financial sector. But take a few minutes and peer through the fog of Breaking News flashes scrolling across CNBC every 30 seconds.

Consider these big flashes: A major restructuring at General Motors. Is this news? GM has been lumbering from one restructuring to another for the past three decades.

George Soros and Jim Rogers predict an end of the world as we know it…yet again. Can anyone recall when either was bullish about the U.S. economy?

Wall Street analysts fall over themselves to downgrade financial stocks. Remember the Goldman Sachs reversal of its bullish call on financials a few weeks back? It is pure herd behavior. Good luck finding analysts who like a financial stock at any price.

A bearish Wall Street is swept by powerful ill-winds. But remember the line from the movie Pollyanna, “When you look for the bad in mankind expecting to find it, you surely will.”

And truer words describing the mindset of a bear market have rarely been spoken.

By the way, does anyone know what becomes of overly-optimistic Pollyanna in the children’s story? She gets crippled in an accident.

Sorry to blow the ending for you…

“I’ve never replied to nonsense like this before but I could’t resist there is no way that this minor blip even compares by the numbers I would bet in ten years we won’t even remember the “housing bubble” I think that the time back in 2001 to 03 was worse, give me a break. f@#% the critics. The U.S. economy is still the greatest on Earth. Think about it.”

-Comment left on Yahoo! Finance website

Sources:

“Buy Now, Don’t Regret Later”
George Anders
Yahoo! Finance, July 16, 2008

“This Real Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived”
Jonathan R. Laing
SmartMoney, July 15

“Mean Street: Pollyannas of the World Unite! It Is Time to Buy”
Evan Newmark
Wall Street Journal, July 15, 2008


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Crash Prophet Gary Shilling Predicts Nosedive In Consumer Spending

Back on June 13, 2007, I wrote a post entitled “Crash Prophets” and spoke of economist/investment advisor Gary Shilling. Dr. Shilling, who was twice ranked as “Wall Street’s top economist” by polls conducted by Institutional Investor magazine, said last summer that the United States was fast approaching a financial storm. From that post:

He notes, “An unusual confluence of five forces in recent years created a virtual world of financial speculation that departed spectacularly from the real economic world, the ‘grand disconnect’ we’ve called it.” The five forces… are:

1. Global liquidity.
2. Investors’ misguided belief in “20% annual returns each and every year.”
3. Risk desensitization due to recent low volatility and the belief the Fed will “bail them out.”
4. Rampant, aggressive speculation.
5. American consumer spending, highlighted by instant gratification and the inability to save.

And what will trigger the meltdown? According to Farrell, Shilling still sees the subprime debacle as the catalyst.

A year later, and the “crash prophet” is providing his latest financial storm forecast. Yesterday, the president of A. Gary Shilling & Co was the subject of a Newsmax.com piece. According to the Internet news site:

The U.S. is already in a recession that’s unfolding in four stages — and it’s going to get a lot worse, investment advisor Gary Shilling says.

“We’re between the second and third stages right now,” Shilling told a Bloomberg interviewer.

“The first phase was the collapse in housing market, led by subprime slide last year; the second phase was Wall Street, where there was a tremendous amount of over-leverage and investment in assets of questionable if not unknown value and highly illiquid.”

Shilling believes the third phase — a big nosedive in consumer spending — is about to unfold.

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that prices paid by U.S. consumers jumped in June by the most since 2005 on spiraling costs for fuel and food. The cost of living soared 1.1% after a 0.6% gain the prior month, the Labor Department said. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, testifying before Congress Wednesday as part of his semi-annual report on the U.S. economy, warned that consumer spending is “likely to be restrained over coming quarters,” and businesses are “likely to be cautious with their spending in the second half of the year.”

Dr. Shilling told Newsmax:

Once people work through their tax rebates, they’ve run out of borrowing power. Their home equity has disappeared. They’ve been relying on that and on income growth that isn’t happening. With high energy bills and maxed out credit cards, I think consumers are about to go off the cliff….

I look for the biggest decline in consumer spending since the 1930s.

Next up? Phase four, where recession spreads throughout the world.

Oh joy…

Sources:

“Gary Schilling: U.S. In Recession Now”
Newsmax.com, July 16, 2008

“U.S. Consumer Prices Climb by the Most Since 2005 (Update1)”
Shobhana Chandra
Bloomberg, July 16, 2008

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Merrill Lynch Economist Warns Of Multiple U.S. Recessions

According to the Financial Post (Canada) from July 9, David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, is warning of the possibility of not one U.S. economic recession, but a series of them. The Post’s Jacqueline Thorpe wrote:

Rosenberg has consistently held one of the more pessimistic views on Wall Street, arguing the housing slump and credit crunch will exact a heavy toll on U.S. consumer spending. He believes the data will eventually show the recession started in January.

But he adds it’s not the peak-to-trough decline in real GDP that’s important but the duration. Trouble is, the duration could be Japanese-like (about a decade).

Just like Japan, he says a series of rolling recessions is possible for the next three to five years, making it extremely difficult to time the market. Japanese equities got trashed through the process. At the 1998 post-bubble lows, Japanese bank, construction, real estate and transport stocks were all down 80%, retail stocks were down 50%. The only place to hide was bonds, notes the bond bull.

Rosenberg told the Canadian publication:

We are nervous that we have ended up following in Japan’s footsteps due to the inept fiscal response to the problem. A temporary tax rebate from Uncle Sam to buy iPods tackles a real estate deflation and credit crunch as effectively as the LDP’s (Liberal Democratic Party) “solution” in the early 1990s to build bridges and pave river beds that nobody needed.

The Vapours, “Turning Japanese” (1980)
YouTube Video Link

Source:

“Rosenberg on strike, fed up trying to pinpoint U.S. recession”
Jacqueline Thorpe
Financial Post (Canada), July 9, 2008


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House Speaker Pelosi Announces Second Stimulus Package

Looks like another stimulus check may soon be on its way to American households. According to Reuters today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi met with several economists Tuesday and announced afterwards:

We will be proceeding with another stimulus package.

Reuters’ Andrew Taylor wrote:

Pelosi said that recently issued tax rebate payments of $600 to individuals and $1,200 for married couples have helped the economy but that more is necessary to offset the drag of higher gasoline prices and other costs…

The Democratic effort is still in its formative stages, but most of the proposals mentioned by Democrats were rejected by Bush during negotiations that produced the earlier stimulus measure. A new package probably won’t be acted on before Congress returns in September from its annual summer vacation.

According to Taylor, this second stimulus package could consist of additional tax rebates, heating and air conditioning subsidies for the poor, infrastructure projects, higher food stamp payments, and aid to the states.

Speaking of seconds, back on April 29 I talked about humor columnist Dave Barry, who published the following in the Miami Herald on April 13 in response to the first stimulus package:

…this year, filing taxpayers will receive an Economic Stimulus Payment. This is a very exciting new program that I will explain using the Q and A format:

Q. What is an Economic Stimulus Payment?
A. It is money that the federal government will send to taxpayers.
Q. Where will the government get this money?
A. From taxpayers.
Q. So the government is giving me back my own money?
A. Only a smidgen.
Q. What is the purpose of this payment?
A. The plan is that you will use the money to purchase a high-definition TV set, thus stimulating the economy.
Q. But isn’t that stimulating the economy of China?
A. Shut up.

Source:

“Democrats plan second economic stimulus bill”
Andrew Taylor
Associated Press, July 15, 2008

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Peter Schiff TV Appearances

Peter Schiff, author of the book Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse, appeared on FOX News Saturday morning and CNBC Tuesday morning. Schiff told viewers of “Fox Bulls & Bears” that the downturn in the U.S. economy goes beyond a “slowdown.” He warned:

We’re already in a severe recession, and it’s going to get a lot worse.

Commenting on the poor performance of the U.S. stock market lately, the president of Connecticut-based Euro Pacific Capital said:

This is a bear market. We’ve been in a bear market since 2000. The market’s going a lot lower, not only in nominal terms, but in real terms.

Later on in the show, Schiff gave a timeframe for how long he thought the bear market would last. He told viewers:

We are in a secular bear market. It’s been going on for 8 years. It’s going to go on for another 5 to 10 years.

As to where investors may want to look at putting their money, the host of the weekly radio program “Wall Street Unspun” said:

It’s [oil] probably going up to $150…

And, you know, trying to catch a falling knife in the financials? They have a long way to go down. I wouldn’t touch them…

Look at gold. You want to see a good chart, look at commodities. Look at foreign currencies.

At the conclusion of the show, Schiff predicted:

Well, this week Bernanke said the economy was going to improve and inflation was going to moderate. He was wrong on both counts. The economy is going to get a lot worse. Inflation is going to get worse. And you’ve got to get out of the dollar. It’s going to fall at least another 10%.

FOX News Appearance
YouTube Video Link

On Tuesday morning, Peter Schiff appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” and responded when asked who was responsible for the financial mess the United States has found itself in by saying:

Well, first of all, it’s the government, and when I say the government, I also mean the Federal Reserve, that has artificially kept interest rates much too low in this country, and in so doing, they’ve encouraged a culture of consumption, of borrowing to buy things. In America, we borrow to buy houses, to buy cars, to send our kids to school, to remodel our houses, to take vacations. And what we’re seeing right now is the fact that we can’t pay any of this money back. And the lenders are cutting us off, and this whole bubble economy that we have is now deflating. But it never would have existed if we had honest money. If we were on a gold standard and we had higher interest rates, we would have been saving, we would have been producing, and we wouldn’t be in this mess.

Schiff shared his views about how to avoid a financial armageddon. He said:

We need to raise interest rates dramatically. What’s that going to do? It’s probably going to bankrupt most of the financials. It’s going to bankrupt a lot companies. We’re going to have to go through a big retrenchment because we basically spent ourselves into bankruptcy. But we can’t keep trying to reflate the bubble. That’s what the Fed is doing. That’s what the stimulus is trying to do. They’re trying to get us to spend more money. That’s the problem. We’ve spent too much. So, we’re going to have to live through a severe recession. If we keep fighting it, all we’re going to have is higher inflation, higher oil prices, higher commodity prices, and eventually, we’re going to get something far worse than just a severe recession. We could have hyperinflation and a complete destruction of our currency.

You can access the 7 minute 16 second CNBC segment here.

Sources:

“Fox Bulls & Bears”
FOXNews, June 28, 2008

“Squawk Box”
CNBC, July 1, 2008

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KB Home Founder: Worst Recession Since World War Two

Eli Broad, the billionaire investor who founded homebuilder KB Home, told Bloomberg yesterday that, “This is the worst period of my adult lifetime,” while speaking about the U.S. economy. Bloomberg’s Erik Holm and Anthony Massucci wrote this morning:

This is worse than any recession we’ve had since World War II,” Broad, 75, said in an interview yesterday… “I do not think things are going to get any better” before the next president takes office in January.

Broad also shared his views on the floundering housing market. He told Bloomberg that the sale of vacant, unsold homes could take “several years.” Holm and Massucci wrote:

“The problem is, people don’t believe prices have bottomed out,” he said. “You’ve got to induce people to buy houses” with federal policies including tax incentives…

“I think housing is going to continue to have a corrosive effect on consumer psychology and the economy in general to a far greater extent than people think, or even far greater than I thought about a month or two ago,” he said.

Source:

“Broad Says U.S. Economy in Worst Recession Since World War II”
Erik Holm, Anthony Massucci
Bloomberg, July 1, 2008

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Quote For The Week

quotes.jpg

Another one bites the dust. Another prediction for a turnaround in the housing market, that is. Back on January 4, White House chief economist Edward Lazear talked to CNBC about the housing slump. From my post that day:

By the way, earlier today Mr. Lazear told CNBC in an interview that the U.S. housing slump was almost over:

The big drain on the economy for the past year and a half has been housing… eventually that is going to bottom out and when that bottom outs, even if it doesn’t expand, it will remove that negative drag on the economy.

Housing has been unfortunately a negative and that should stop probably in the next six months.

While the housing numbers for June aren’t due out for some time yet, I think it’s pretty safe to say at the end of Lazear’s six-month timeframe that there doesn’t appear to be any let up to the U.S. housing bust.

Mr. Lazear shouldn’t feel too bad. He joins a distinguished group of economists, analysts, journalists, etcetera, who have tried, and failed, to call a bottom in the U.S. housing market.

Next, please.

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Depression 2010?

The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.

-Unknown

I always try to tune into “Financial Sense Newshour” with Jim Puplava and John Loeffler every week. During part one of the third hour of the June 21 broadcast, Jim Puplava dropped a bomb with the following statement:

The U.S. economy, John, in my opinion, is heading into a depression by the year 2010. Now, rebuilding the country may be the only thing that brings us out of that depression. And remember, severe bear markets in depressions, as we’ve been talking about on this program, are caused by politicians. It takes a politician to turn a recession into a depression. And given the current debate, and the holes that we’ve dug ourselves in, I don’t see how we’re going to avoid this crisis. I mean, the things we’re talking about doing today, should have been done over 10 years ago.

next-depression.jpg

Source:

“Financial Sense Newshour”
Third Hour, Part One
June 21, 2008, Broadcast
FinancialSense.com

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Ross Perot Warns Of Economic Crisis, Launches PerotCharts.com

Glad someone else is spreading the word. Definitely worth a visit:

Ross Perot Launches Public Information Website About U.S. Economic Crisis

PerotCharts.com Illustrates that We Are Running Out Of Time to Stop Deficit Spending

DALLAS, TEXAS - JUNE 16, 2008 /PRNewswire/Ross Perot, business leader and former presidential candidate, announced today the launch of “PerotCharts.com,” a public information website that contains objective, factual information about the current economic crisis in America. The site is being launched as an alert and appeal for American citizens to inform themselves about federal government spending. Perot said, “The U.S. national debt reached $9.4 TRILLION on April 30, and it is increasing by more than $1 billion every day. We are leaving our children and grandchildren with debt they cannot possibly pay.”

PerotCharts.com consists of three major components: a video featuring Ross Perot discussing the purpose of the website, a blog where new charts and other information are posted daily for study and comment, and a narrated chart presentation explaining the economic problems our country faces.

The website is not affiliated with any political party or candidate. Most of the data and research for the charts is gathered from official government sources.

“The economic crisis facing America today is far greater than anything since the Great Depression,” said Perot. “Our federal government continues to spend us deeper into debt. The American people must get directly involved and demand an end to deficit spending. This website will provide information for citizens to do just that.”

Like the economic charts Perot employed in his 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, which served as snapshots of complex economic issues presented in simple terms, PerotCharts.com features the latest official government figures about the real conditions of our economy for everyone to see and consider. The site is designed to be a reservoir of information about the economy, and provides an accurate look at where the money comes from and where it goes.

David Walker, former U.S. Comptroller General and current president and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation said, “Ross Perot is the father of fiscal charts, and PerotCharts.com will help Americans understand the serious fiscal challenges facing our nation. These updated economic charts will also serve to hold elected officials accountable while accelerating needed actions to help ensure that our collective future will be better than our past. What we need now is leadership from our elected officials.”

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives said, “Ross Perot is exactly right to echo Winston Churchill’s famous cry for ‘action this day’ to rally the nation to reform our entitlement programs, end deficit spending, and balance the federal budget. PerotCharts.com contains information every citizen needs to know so we can demand real change to get the nation on the right track.

David L. Boren, former U.S. Senator and governor of Oklahoma and current president of the University of Oklahoma said, “The facts speak for themselves in Ross Perot’s powerful website for all Americans. Runaway spending and a rising national debt will destroy America’s future as a great nation. As more of our debt is held by those in other countries, our political independence is put at risk by our economic dependency. We must act now!

“We simply cannot wait any longer to do something about runaway deficit spending,” Perot said. “This website addresses a number of issues, and we will add more in the coming weeks and months. But there is a common thread running through all of them. We cannot solve these problems unless we have the ability to pay for the solutions. Getting spending under control is the first step in that process.”

For more information, visit PerotCharts.com.

Source:

“Ross Perot Launches Public Information Website About U.S. Economic Crisis”
PRNewswire, June 16, 2008

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Are Rich Americans Leaving The Country?

I heard the rumor the other week. A number of wealthy Americans are leaving, or making plans to leave, the country. The player-haters can’t wait (of course). Consider the following comment that appeared on DemocraticUnderground.com:

LEAVE. Take your money and go. America will survive without you…

So rather than ruin our country for the other 90% whom you despise. Go away. Take all of your precious money and go elsewhere. Even if it means depression we will be better off in the long run without your manipulation of our government just for the sake of having your cake and eating it too.

And it appears some politicians can’t wait for the rich to leave either. On June 11, CNN Money senior writer Jeanne Sahadi talked about the 2008 U.S. presidential candidates’ proposed tax policies. She wrote:

But voters really want to know one thing: How would the presidential candidates’ views trickle down to their tax bills? A report released Wednesday by a nonpartisan policy group in Washington, D.C., takes a big first step toward answering that question.

According to the Tax Policy Center’s findings, Sahadi wrote that under presumptive Democratic nominee for president Barack Obama:

High-income taxpayers would pay more in taxes, while everyone else’s tax bill would be reduced…

Obama’s plan would keep the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts in place for everyone except those making more than roughly $250,000, and he would increase the capital gains tax.

…the highest-income households – those with at least $603,000 in income - would see a dramatic decline in their after-tax income - a drop of 8.7%, or $116,000.

The CNN Money senior writer noted:

Jason Furman, a newly appointed senior economic adviser to Obama, said his preliminary response is that the report’s findings bear out what Obama’s campaign has been saying: that he’s for the middle class.

At the expense of the rich, apparently. Just this afternoon, the Associated Press reported:

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama on Friday called for higher payroll taxes on wage-earners making more than $250,000 annually, a step that would affect the wealthiest 3 percent of Americans.

The presidential candidate told senior citizens in Ohio that it is unfair for middle-class earners to pay the Social Security tax “on every dime they make,” while millionaires and billionaires pay it on only “a very small percentage of their income.”

The 6.2 percent payroll tax is now applied to all wages up to $102,000 a year, which covers the entire amount for most Americans. Under Obama’s plan, the tax would not apply to wages between that amount and $250,000. But all annual salaries above the quarter-million-dollar amount would be taxed under his plan, Obama said.

I know what you may be thinking. It’s about time the rich starting paying their fair share of taxes. However, last fall, the Washington, D.C.-based tax research organization The Tax Foundation looked at the latest release of Internal Revenue Service data on individual income taxes. In 2005:

The top-earning 25 percent of taxpayers (AGI over $62,068) earned 67.5 percent of the nation’s income, but they paid more than four out of every five dollars collected by the federal income tax (86 percent). The top 1 percent of taxpayers (AGI over $364,657) earned approximately 21.2 percent of the nation’s income (as defined by AGI), yet paid 39.4 percent of all federal income taxes. That means the top 1 percent of tax returns paid about the same amount of federal individual income taxes as the bottom 95 percent of tax returns.

Stephen Moore, a senior economics writer for the Wall Street Journal editorial board and a contributor to CNBC, wrote in the November/December 2007 issue of The American magazine:

Yes, income in America is skewed toward the rich. But taxes are skewed far, far more. The top 5 percent pay well over half the income taxes.

Maybe the rich ain’t so bad after all. Get rid of them, and who will pay for all those precious government programs?

But the question still remains. Are rich Americans leaving, or planning to leave, the country? Consider a poll conducted by Zogby International which asked adult Americans if they had ever considered moving outside the United States. The survey, which had more than 115,000 respondents, excluded anyone relocating offshore for less than two years and anyone who relocated because of government requirements, the military or their jobs. Bob Bauman of offshore experts The Sovereign Society wrote on October 16:

The Zogby results are shocking – especially compared to the entire U.S. population (now about 303,116,000). The numbers below are for households, not individuals.

1.6 million U.S. households already decided to move offshore and are headed in that direction.
Another 1.8 million households are seriously considering moving and are likely to do it. Many have taken preliminary steps.
• 7.7 million households are “somewhat seriously” considering moving and “may” do it.
• Nearly 3 million households are seriously considering buying a vacation home or other property outside the United States. Another 10 million are “somewhat” seriously considering it.

This means that almost 10% of U.S. households are considering leaving the country. Another 10% are considering living outside the country part-time. Most analysts are ignoring this silent massive emigration.

These would-be emigrant households plan to spend an average of US$260,000 on buying or building a house. They’re also planning to spend at least US$36,000 annually on living expenses outside the United States.

In total, they represent hundreds of billions of dollars leaving the U.S. economy each year.

Bauman quoted John Gaver of ActionAmerica.org, who said:

The problem is that increasingly, the wealthy perceive that they are under attack by their own government and they are taking the only rational option left open to them. They’re taking their wealth and leaving.

And regarding the number of wealthy Americans who have already left the country, Bauman wrote:

Every year, about 250,000 U.S. citizens and resident aliens leave America to make a new home in some other nation.

In 2005, the U.S. Bureau of the Census upped this estimate. They guessed that over 350,000 U.S. citizens and resident aliens would leave the United States permanently.

On February 15, John Gaver wrote in a piece on ActionAmerica.org:

Wealthy US citizens continue to leave the US at an alarming rate

Tax haven countries are recording significantly larger numbers of US applicants for permanent residence or second citizenship every year. Keep in mind that most of those expats are wealthy, since poor people can’t afford to leave. In fact, millions of poor people risk their lives in the back of trailers or crossing Arizona desert every year, to take advantage of our increasing welfare state. It is the wealthy, who are leaving and they represent lost US investment dollars and subsequently, LOST US JOBS

When big money is forced out of the US, it is the average citizen who has to make up the difference in higher taxes. The Income Tax and US government attacks on wealth is costing you money in more ways than you know.

Sources:

“What they’ll do to your tax bill”
Jeanne Sahadi
CNN Money, June 11, 2008

“Obama wants payroll tax on incomes above $250,000”
Charles Babington
Associated Press, June 13, 2008

“Summary of Latest Federal Individual Income Tax Data”
Gerald Prante
The Tax Foundation, October 5, 2007

“Guess Who Really Pays The Taxes”
Stephen Moore
The American, November/December 2007

“Why the Well-to-Do Are Escaping America”
Bob Bauman
The Sovereign Society, October 16, 2007

“US Taxpatriates Compiled by the Internal Revenue Service”
John Gaver
ActionAmerica.org, February 15, 2008

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