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For Whom The Bell Tolls, Part 4

The U.S. employment situation looks increasingly bleak. From the CNBC website yesterday:

Planned layoffs at U.S. companies jumped 26 percent in July from June, depicting further deterioration in the labor market, a report showed on Monday.

Planned layoffs at U.S. companies totaled 103,312 in July, compared with June’s 81,755, employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc said.

Announced job cuts at U.S. companies last month were the second highest total so far in 2008, more than double the 42,897 a year earlier, the report said.

The transportation industry hurt by sky-high fuel costs accounted for the most planned cuts in July with 17,051. The financial sector battered by the credit crisis followed with 15,517 cuts. Retailers facing a pullback in consumer spending came next with 12,160 layoffs.

Employment data from the first half of the year was also dismal. According to CNBC:

From January to July, planned layoffs totaled 579,260, up 33 percent from the same period a year ago.

The outlook for Wall Street and the financial sector doesn’t look too good either. From the CNBC piece:

Financial companies, in particular mortgage lenders, have been slashing their payrolls, prompted by billions of losses and write-downs tied to soured investments on housing and mortgages.

So far this year, planned layoffs in the mortgage and subprime sector has reached 92,547, already surpassing the 2007 tally of 86,126.

With no end in sight, job hemorrhage in the financial sector could surpass the last year’s record total of 153,105 by the end of October, Challenger predicted.

Keep an eye out for those used Maseratis…

Source:

“Companies Step Up the Pace of Layoffs”
Reuters, August 4, 2008

Vacancies Up At Strip Malls, Regional Malls

Because of this blog and other projects I am working on— I don’t get out much these days. But when I do manage to escape the cage, I’ve noticed more and more empty storefronts in business districts, strip malls, and regional malls around the Chicagoland area. It’s not like I specifically look for them either. Even my father noticed it as we drove back from breakfast this morning. “Look at all those empty stores,” he remarked, as we drove through the downtown area of one of the western suburbs.

So I wasn’t too surprised when I came across a piece by Illaina Jonas of Reuters UK, which said the second quarter was the worst quarter for strip malls in 28 years due to store closings and cutbacks. Using data provided by real estate research firm Reis, Jonas wrote this past Monday:

Strip malls, which are usually anchored by grocery or drug stores, saw average vacancies spike 0.5 percentage points to 8.2 percent, a level unseen since 1995, according to the report released on Monday…

For the first time since 1980, more space became available to rent at strip malls than was rented out – about 3.2 million square feet more. Part of the available space came in the form of 5.7 million square feet of new development that came on the market during the quarter.

Looking For A New Hangout?
Jay & Silent Bob From “Clerks 2” (2006)

Jonas talked about the sources of the strip mall woes. She wrote:

A growing list of retailers shuttered stores ahead of lease expirations or chose not to renew leases, and as newly completed space hit the market without signed tenants…

Consumers are constrained by increases in food and energy costs, as well as the cost of servicing debt run up during the housing boom. In addition to cutting back on clothing, jewelry and nonessentials, they have turned to lower-price grocers such as Wal-Mart at the expense of the upper end usually found at strip malls, such as Whole Foods Market Inc., Reis said.

It’s not just the strip malls that are hurting. The Reuters reporter noted:

Vacancies at regional malls rose 0.4 percentage points to 6.3 percent, the highest level since the first quarter of 2002, according to the preliminary results.

The result of growing vacancies, Jonas said, was downward pressure on rents charged by landlords.

Not a good time to be a mall tycoon…

Source:

“US retail property 2nd-qtr worst in 30 yrs - Report”
Ilaina Jonas
Reuters (UK), July 7, 2008

Consumers Buying What They Need, Not What They Want

This afternoon I read an interesting article by the Associated Press’ Jeannine Aversa about consumer spending at a time when the U.S. economy is slowing and prices for items such as food and gas are rising. According to a recent government report on retail sales, clothing stores, furniture and home furnishing retailers, electronics and appliance stores, building materials and garden supply places, and health and beauty shops were among those merchants who saw their sales drop last month. Sales at bars and restaurants posted a modest increase from the previous month, as did sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores.

Aversa noted how consumers are changing their spending habits:

• 60% of the American public say they are now less comfortable buying a big-ticket item, such as a home or a car, than they were just 6 months ago, according to the RBC Cash poll conducted by Ipsos, an international polling firm, earlier this month. 12 months ago, 48% said they were less comfortable about making a major purchase.
• 53.6% of people surveyed focused more on what they needed, rather than what they wanted, when they went shopping over the last 6 months, according to BIGresearch, a firm that tracks consumer behavior. Pam Goodfellow, a senior analyst at BIGresearch, says the focus is more on smart shopping and bargain hunting.
• Because declining home prices and rising prices at the pump cannot be controlled, consumers are “controlling the little things… filling up the cart and putting things back at the check out,” said Candace Corlett, principal at consulting firm WSL Strategic Retail. She warned, “They are learning restraint and that is deadly for commerce.” Although, most Americans aren’t giving up things like medications, cell phones, and cable TV.

Photo by Ruth Elkin, stock.xchng

The research firms pointed out specific areas that were suffering from the pullback in consumer spending. 35.2% of people polled were scaling back vacation plans, according to BIGresearch. WSL Strategic Retail said fashion accessories, home decor items, premium brands of food and specialty coffees, eating at restaurants and take-out foods, and tickets to entertainment, are the top areas where consumers are cutting back.

Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst at consumer and retail research firm NPD Group said video games, toys, and skin care products are the three areas he believes are least likely to see spending cuts.

Source:

“People’s decisions to cut back add up to weaker economy”
Jeannine Aversa
Associated Press, April 25, 2008

Recession? Send In The Fashion Police

Hell must have frozen over. Who would have ever thought that fashionistas would be discussing such “mundane” topics as the U.S. economy and recessions— unless, that is, they were involved in the business side of things? Yet, I’ve started to detect some of this chatter in world of fashion. Of course, just the discussion of such issues is reprehensible to some. According to one fashion blogger:

So many writers spend their days viewing society with a cynical magnifying glass — and oftentimes, bloggers are the worst….

I feel overwhelmingly bad about the state of… politics, celebrities, fashion, the world, etc. Instead of rose-colored glasses, I feel like I’m viewing things through black lenses. And goth is not my style.

Whatever you say. But some are actively discussing the prospect of a recession, and its potential impact on the industry. Yesterday, Isabelle O’Carroll wrote in the blog “Catwalk Queen” that:

We’re nearing the end of the fashion season and disgruntled rumblings are already being heard about the clothes. Even from designers such as Prada who usually wear their eccentric hearts on their sleeves the mood has been conservative and dare I say it a little sombre as the spectre of a US recession casts a shadow over the fashion world.

The hype surrounding the so-called ‘credit crunch’ which has led to repossessions and increasing debt in the US has sparked fears of a worldwide recession. The weak dollar has prevented buyers from large stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Barneys attending London Fashion Week. “London designers are the icing on the cake,” said Averyl Oates, the fashion director of Harvey Nichols. “And these days no one needs extra icing.”

With the prospect of an economic contraction looming, how have fashion designers responded? By attacking the recession head-on with even more opulent shows and extraordinarily creative designs. You go, girl! According to the Associated Press on February 25:

Luxury brands pulled out the stops in Paris on Monday with creative displays designed to ward off fears of recession that have cast a pall over the retail sector…

Guests including “Cashmere Mafia” star Lucy Liu watched the parade, set in a tent in the Tuileries gardens against a spectacular set of cascading water.

The no-expense-spared bash was Dior’s antidote to a retail climate undermined by fears of a U.S. recession, rising energy prices and a weak dollar.

“When times are tough, the mistake is to throw in the towel,” Dior CEO Sidney Toledano told The Associated Press. “I always use this metaphor: when the kids are not hungry, you have to cook even nicer dishes to stoke their appetite.”

“When times are tough, models grab orange mocha frappuccinos”
YouTube video link

Lauren Goldstein Crowe wrote on February 5 in Condé Nast’s Portfolio.com that:

You’d never know there was a recession looming from looking at the shows. They’ve been more opulent than ever…

Retailers fight recession in a number of ways. But for those at the top of the heap — stores like Bergdorf Goodman or Harvey Nichols — the best plan of attack is to bring in the most special pieces possible. Averyl Oates, the fashion director at Harvey Nichols said that while they are keeping an eye on the number of pieces they buy at the 8,000 pound mark, it is by and large, their lower priced goods that suffer in recession. It’s simply too easy for people to trade down to the high street for their jeans and casual clothes. But once you’ve worn a feather-adorned designer gown, or gold painted coat, or giant fur collared jacket, you’re just not going to be happy at Zara.

Will the fashionistas be able to defeat that menace known as recession? Will the author of this piece ever update his grunge-era wardrobe? Stay tuned…

Vanguard Founder Says Recession Odds At 75 Percent

Earlier today, CNN Money posted the answers to questions Fortune readers asked of John Bogle, the 78-year-old founder of mutual fund giant Vanguard. With $1.3 trillion in assets, Vanguard is now the second-largest mutual fund company. Bogle talked about the odds of a U.S. recession, the U.S. housing market, the subprime crisis, and challenges to the U.S. economy, among other issues.

What are the odds of a recession right now?

I would put the odds of a recession at 75 percent. This economy is very much consumer-based, and I believe that 70 percent of the GDP is consumer spending. That’s a very high number. Two things are happening there: Consumers have fewer resources because from 2001 to 2005 they took $5 trillion out of real estate. That will not recur. This is a big drop. We also see weakness in auto sales and retail spending - we even see it at companies like Starbucks. There is another, equally important factor in consumer spending, and that is confidence. Consumers are not going to spend if they are worried about the future.

Will the real estate market improve anytime soon?

It doesn’t look so good. I really don’t see it improving soon. At some point homes will have to be built. But right now there is not much incentive to build new places when there are so many old places on the market. When those lines cross I don’t know. It’s complicated by the fact that many people have gotten into ARMs [adjustable-rate mortgages] who didn’t know what they were doing. I don’t know what is going to happen to those people when lenders foreclose. When banks were community banks, they were more careful. But when banks sell loans in a bundle, they are clearly not going to be concerned about mortgage quality. So we have to have a better system in the future to make sure we have a much better element of credit quality in mortgages.

How does the U.S. subprime mess compare with other crises you have seen in your career?

I’d say the most similar example was the S&L crisis of the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. The issues were somewhat the same: Institutions borrowed short and lent long.

The immediate concern for most investors is the subprime market, but over the long term what do you see as the biggest challenges facing the U.S. economy?

Externally, we are faced with $1.5 trillion already poured into Iraq and Afghanistan. So you have enormous expenditures in a corner of the world that is important to us, but it is very unwise to think we can bring democracy to a place that doesn’t share our values. There are also the challenges from low cost production in China and India. At home, we have a tremendous future financial problem with the federal deficit. We’ll have to take action on Social Security someday. Government spending has gotten to the point where we will have to either cut spending or raise taxes. Another problem is this deadlocked Congress. And I see the quality and caliber of our presidential nominees, and I am not impressed.

It raises the question of whether this country is even able to run itself anymore.