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Ron Paul: Welcome To The Next Great Depression

Congressman Ron Paul warned his colleagues in the U.S. House of Representatives before they approved the bailout legislation:

By doing more mischief, by not allowing markets to adjust, debt to be liquidated, you’re going to guarantee a Depression…

YouTube Video Link

Poll: One-Third Of Adults Surveyed Think U.S. In Depression

It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours.

-Harry S. Truman, 33rd President of the United States

The “D” word is making a comeback. USA Today’s Mindy Fetterman wrote today:

In a sign that anxiety is growing, 33% of 1,011 adults surveyed over the weekend by USA TODAY and Gallup said the economy already is in a depression (though by economists’ measures it is not). Just 12% said that 10 months ago…

Seventy-three percent said U.S. financial troubles will get worse before they get better. They expect their taxes to go up, and many worry about affording retirement or maintaining their standard of living. Nearly half worry about their homes losing value; 20% are seriously looking at taking money out of the stock market…

Trust is shifting from stocks and real estate to federally insured bank CDs. And nearly 30% have postponed, or are thinking about postponing, a big purchase. Almost half of those with jobs are more worried than before that the Wall Street crisis will mean their pay or benefits will be cut.

Displaced Great Depresssion kids
Bakersfield, California (1935)

Source:

“Poll on the economy: Americans gloomier, for now”
Mindy Fetterman
USA Today, September 29, 2008

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Former Fed Governor: Financial Crisis Worse Than Great Depression

CNBC’s Andrew Fisher wrote today:

Economics scholar and former Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin says the shock that continues to rip through the nation’s economy is actually worse than what was felt during the Great Depression.

“The difference is, we have people on the ball,” the Columbia University professor told CNBC.

Mishkin said he was impressed by the way his former colleagues at the Fed handled crises.

“During all these episodes… everybody stayed very cool, calm, and collected,’ he recalled. “Chairman Bernanke is someone who sits down, is very analytical, thinks through, doesn’t get excited, just, ‘Let’s do the job,’ the staff operated that way, the rest of the board operated that way.”

I, for one, sure hope Mr. Bernanke’s problem-solving skills are a lot better than his forecasting abilities.

Anyone recall the following statements from “Helicopter Ben” over the last couple of years?

Housing Bubble

Testimony given at a Congressional Joint Economic Committee hearing in October 2005 (as reported by Nell Henderson of the Washington Post):

Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, “largely reflect strong economic fundamentals,” such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households…

Bernanke’s testimony suggests that he does not share such concerns, and that he believes the economy could weather a housing slowdown.

“House prices are unlikely to continue rising at current rates,” said Bernanke, who served on the Fed board from 2002 until June. However, he added, “a moderate cooling in the housing market, should one occur, would not be inconsistent with the economy continuing to grow at or near its potential next year.”

Derivatives

Testimony given at a U.S. Senate hearing, November 15, 2005:

I think, generally speaking, they are very valuable. They provide methods by which risks can be shared, sliced and diced and given to those most willing to bear it. They add, I believe, to the flexibility of the financial system in many different ways.

And, with respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who have considerable incentive to understand them and to use them properly.

Subprime Crisis

Testimony given at a Congressional Joint Economic Committee hearing in March 2007:

At this juncture, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.

The big question: Can Bernanke and the Fed fix something they never saw coming in the first place?

Sources:

“Top Economist Mishkin: Worse Than the Depression”
Andrew Fisher
CNBC, September 23, 2008

“Bernanke: There’s No Housing Bubble to Go Bust”
Nell Henderson
Washington Post, October 27, 2005

U.S. Economy Headed Towards Doom And Gloom?

This morning I came across two pieces which were notable in that they painted a gloomy picture for the U.S. economy going forward. Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch talked about TCW Group’s Jeffrey Gundlach’s economic outlook, and wrote:

An influential investment strategist has a dire forecast for U.S. stocks, credit markets and the continued independence of some of the nation’s top financial institutions.

Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer at Los Angeles-based mutual-fund company TCW Group Inc., told clients on a conference call late Wednesday that the crisis in credit and housing may not abate for several years and is actually getting worse.

In the deteriorating climate he sees unfolding, Gundlach said, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index could fall another 30%, giant Citigroup could become an “AIG-sized debacle,” Morgan Stanley would merge with a banking company, Wachovia won’t be able to stand alone, default rates on even prime mortgages could soar, and European banks’ woes are just beginning.

“This is no market for old men,” said Gundlach, who also manages TCW’s flagship Total Return Bond Fund . “This is no market for old-school thinking.”

Gundlach based his assessment on a belief that housing prices still face several more years of decline, a protracted slump, he said, not seen since the Great Depression. Moreover, Gundlach said it’s possible that home prices could be sluggish until 2022.

“If it’s like the Depression experience — and it sure is shaping up that way — it could take several years. Maybe we won’t see a bottom in home prices until 2014,” he said.

Burton talked about Gundlach’s credentials for making such statements. He wrote:

As a forecaster, Gundlach didn’t just climb aboard the gloom-and-doom wagon. He was early to spot the cracks that subprime loans were making in the financial system, and among the first to warn that an era of easy money would come to a bad end.

The MarketWatch reporter noted:

Expect loan default rates to rise, Gundlach said, not just in the subprime market, but among the top-drawer prime borrowers as well. The prime default rate could approach 10% from a current 2% before the carnage is over, he said…

Accordingly, financial institutions may suffer write-offs that could surpass $1 trillion before conditions improve, he said…

The breakdown will take a further toll on U.S. stocks, Gundlach added. The S&P 500 will tumble below 800, he said, about 35% below its 1156 close on Wednesday.

Said Gundlach: “None of us have ever seen this, and it’s no market for old men, but risk aversion is the order of the day.”

Someone else who sees massive problems ahead for the American economy is Harvard economic professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund Kenneth Rogoff. He wrote on the Financial Times (UK) website last night:

Were the financial crisis to end today, the costs would be painful but manageable, roughly equivalent to the cost of another year in Iraq. Unfortunately, however, the financial crisis is far from over, and it is hard to imagine how the US government is going to succeed in creating a firewall against further contagion without spending five to 10 times more than it has already, that is, an amount closer to $1,000bn to $2,000bn.

In other words, $1 to $2 trillion. Rogoff continued:

True, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve have done an admirable job over the past week in forcing the private sector to bear a share of the burden. By forcing the fourth largest investment bank, Lehman Brothers, into bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch into a distressed sale to Bank of America, they helped to facilitate a badly needed consolidation in the financial services sector. However, at this juncture, there is every possibility that the credit crisis will radiate out into corporate, consumer and municipal debt. Regardless of the Fed and Treasury’s most determined efforts, the political pressures for a much larger bail-out, and pressures from the continued volatility in financial markets, are going to be irresistible…

The Ivy League professor talked about the potential fallout from allocating so much money to deal with the escalating financial crisis. He wrote:

It may prove to be possible to fix the system for far less than $1,000bn- $2,000bn. The tough stance taken by regulators this past weekend with the investment banks Lehman and Merrill Lynch certainly helps.

Yet I fear that the American political system will ultimately drive the cost of saving the financial system well up into that higher territory.

A large expansion in debt will impose enormous fiscal costs on the US, ultimately hitting growth through a combination of higher taxes and lower spending. It will certainly make it harder for the US to maintain its military dominance, which has been one of the linchpins of the dollar.

The shrinking financial system will also undermine another central foundation of the strength of the US economy. And it is hard to see how the central bank will be able to resist a period of allowing elevated levels of inflation, as this offers a convenient way for the US to deflate the mounting cost of its private and public debts.

It is a very good thing that the rest of the world retains such confidence in America’s ability to manage its problems, otherwise the financial crisis would be far worse.

Let us hope the US political and regulatory response continues to inspire this optimism. Otherwise, sharply rising interest rates and a rapidly declining dollar could put the US in a bind that many emerging markets are all too familiar with.

A new banana republic?

Sources:

“The worst is yet to come”
Jonathan Burton
MarketWatch, September 18, 2008

“America will need a $1,000bn bail-out”
Kenneth Rogoff
Financial Times (UK), September 17, 2008

U.S., Europe Headed Towards Another Depression?

For some, warnings of a U.S. economic slowdown go beyond a recession. From the CNBC website this morning:

The end result of the global economic slowdown may be the U.S. announcing national bankruptcy as the government cannot afford the bailouts that it promised and the market will not bail out the government, Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Hong Kong-based Tyche, told CNBC on Thursday.

“We expect a depression in the United States. We expect a depression, very possibly, also in Europe,” Hennecke said on “Worldwide Exchange.”

Hennecke, who previously worked as an investment adviser at Hong Kong’s Bridgewater Ltd. and is a frequent guest on CNBC and Bloomberg Television, explained:

The estimated $300 billion cost of the Fannie/Freddie bailout will probably be considered as a loss that the government will have to take, therefore passing it on to taxpayers, he explained.

“We already have $3 trillion of debt, as far as the U.S. government is concerned. These debt figures across the U.S. economy are rising very sharply.”

When the government can no longer pass the United States’ “immense debt” on to taxpayers, it will turn to the holders of U.S. dollars, leading to the eventual downfall of the currency, Hennecke said.

“Definitely, it (the dollar) is not a safe place to be invested in, as real inflation is closer to 10 or 11 percent than the actual inflation numbers given by the U.S. government,” Hennecke said on “Worldwide Exchange”.

“Better than Charmin?”

Source:

“Bailouts Will Push US into Depression: Manager”
CNBC, September 11, 2008

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World’s Highest Paid Investment Adviser: U.S. Faces Hyperinflation Or Depression

I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned this, but I am extremely grateful to Peter Brimelow over at MarketWatch. Without his column, I wouldn’t have access to the insights of Harry Schultz, the highest paid investment consultant in the world. For those readers not familiar with Mr. Schultz, I talked about him back on December 13. From that post:

Have you ever heard of Harry Schultz? I sure have, and to this day I am still in absolute awe of the money this man earns. Mr. Schultz, publisher of the International Harry Schultz Letter, is the highest paid investment consultant in the world at $3,500 an hour (or $4,900 an hour if you require his services during the weekend).

Brimelow talked about Schultz’ latest U.S. economic forecast this past Monday on MarketWatch. He wrote:

Harry Schultz’ The International Harry Schultz Letter was posted last night right about the time the Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac bailout was reported. But Schultz anticipated it, writing sarcastically:

“Flash: As we go to press, the US Government reveals plan to take over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the biggest bail-out by taxpayers in history. It also wipes out the shareholders! Sunday selected to avoid stock market action same day, just as bank closures are told after market close Friday. That tells you what shape markets are in when government and CEOs hide behind holidays.”

Schultz had earlier made his overview clear (I’m translating slightly from of his text-message style):

“Fed maneuver room approximately gone. Any $US injection big enough to avert a depression triggers runaway inflation. If not big enough: depression. US on knife-edge. Gold helps you either way.”

This apocalyptic vision is consistent with his earlier predictions, such as one I discussed in a February 18 post. Brimelow stated back then:

Schultz writes: “It’s a derivative crisis, stupid!… 9,000 U.S. banks failed in 1929-1932; look for new records… Hyper-inflation is a distinct possibility; stay awake!”

Among his more colorful recommendations: “Buy a few local non-rare gold coins of whatever country you are in for emergency/barter use, smallest denominations… Keep 6-12 months cash at home/office/ lawyer-doctor office. Pretend an emergency is coming, because it may be.”

…and from that December 13 post:

Among other interesting ideas raised by Schultz in his intense, somewhat terrifying introduction: recession, possibly depression; bank failures; exchange controls; housing prices down by 50%; credit card company failures; money market fund dangers; tripling of U.S. jobless numbers; federal bail-outs for Fannie Mae.

Note the bailout prediction for Fannie Mae.

Fast forward to Schultz’s latest forecast. Brimelow wrote:

Schultz suggests just two alternative scenarios, both equally appalling:

“If Bush bails them all out, the die would be cast for inflation unseen in the West since 1923 Germany. If no bail: Hello, 1929.”

Gee, thanks.

Brimelow talked about what Schultz thought was going to happen next, and what those hoping to be one step ahead of the herd should do about it. He wrote:

In his latest issue, Schultz summarizes:

“Widespread stagflation will probably now build more inflation than stagnation, then gradually morph into more stagnation than inflation. Then, deflation takes over, and ultimately, depression. All this over next 9 years.”

“For the moment, seal off major wipe-out risks. Exit all money funds and currency time deposits, step up gold & oil positions, move into 1-2 year government bonds (non-US $) in First World nations. Swiss first choice. Think not of yield; think of an ark’s life preserver around your neck.”

Schultz, notes Brimelow, is currently negative on the U.S. stock market. But, the Swiss-based investment adviser predicts an upside target of $1,600 an ounce for gold as he believes its recent plummet in price is merely a correction.

Source:

“Unraveling according to schedule”
Peter Brimelow
MarketWatch, September 8, 2008

I.O.U.S.A.

For those of you looking for some feel-good cinema this summer, you may want to pass on the movie “I.O.U.S.A.,” which debuts August 21. Frank Ahrens of the Washington Post wrote Thursday:

A private-equity billionaire, a former federal government official and a Baltimore newsletter editor have made a documentary film that they hope can do what an endless parade of policy papers has not: Persuade Americans that debt has created a looming economic crisis that would make the Great Depression look like a market correction.

The movie, “I.O.U.S.A.,” debuting Aug. 21, is an 87-minute alarum on what it calls the tsunami of debt bearing down on the United States’ future, caused by the rising national deficit, the trade imbalance and the pending costs of baby boomers cashing in on entitlements…

The film will debut in 400 theaters around the country on Aug. 21, followed by a live video town hall meeting from Omaha, featuring Walker, Peterson and Buffett. The next day, the film opens in 10 cities, including Washington.

From the movie’s website:

Wake up, America! We’re on the brink of a financial meltdown. I.O.U.S.A. boldly examines the rapidly growing national debt and its consequences for the United States and its citizens. Burdened with an ever-expanding government and military, increased international competition, overextended entitlement programs, and debts to foreign countries that are becoming impossible to honor, America must mend its spendthrift ways or face an economic disaster of epic proportions.

Throughout history, the American government has found it nearly impossible to spend only what has been raised through taxes. Wielding candid interviews with both average American taxpayers and government officials, Sundance veteran Patrick Creadon (Wordplay) helps demystify the nation’s financial practices and policies. The film follows former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker as he crisscrosses the country explaining America’s unsustainable fiscal policies to its citizens.

With surgical precision, Creadon interweaves archival footage and economic data to paint a vivid and alarming profile of America’s current economic situation. The ultimate power of I.O.U.S.A. is that the film moves beyond doomsday rhetoric to proffer potential financial scenarios and propose solutions about how we can recreate a fiscally sound nation for future generations.

I know where I’ll be August 21…

Trailer, “I.O.U.S.A.” (2008)
YouTube Video Link

Source:

“Indebted Ever After”
Frank Ahrens
Washington Post, August 7, 2008

The Next Great Depression

Taking it down a few notches today, I enjoyed a nice cigar from the Dominican Republic this afternoon out on my balcony here in the Windy City. Kind of bummed out that one of my suppliers raised their prices, though. Too bad. I almost pulled a JFK and ordered a stockpile of cigars last year after Washington Democrats were looking to increase the tax cap from a nickel per cigar to $10 a stick— or 20,413%. Unbelievable. By the way, never heard of the JFK cigar story? Well, if you have time, I highly recommend you watch the following video (a little over 3 minutes long) of Pierre Salinger, JFK’s secretary, telling the story (and other cigar-related ones)…

YouTube Video Link

While puffing away, I got the chance to listen to a portion of last weekend’s “Financial Sense Newshour” broadcast. Jim Puplava and John Loeffler have been talking about a financial crisis window for a while now, which they expect to take place between 2009 and 2012. Puplava and Loeffler had this to say last weekend:

JOHN: So looking forward, say, 12 to 24 months, we would say, given where we’re going, we can probably look towards higher gold and metals prices; there will be another money crisis – another currency crisis – and all it would seem like they’re [Congress] doing right now is staving off the day of reckoning. Let’s face it, we said that 2008, that’s the ramp up to 2009 to 2012 – it’s accelerated a little more than I thought it would be and it’s a little more violent than I thought it would be, but nevertheless we’re still on that; and somewhere in that window, all of this stuff begins to fall apart and you can’t tell what’s going to trigger it, but it will go.

JIM: It’s going to trigger. And I think that the thing that’s scaring the heck out of them [Congress] is all of this is starting to unfold – whether it’s $4 gasoline at the pumps, headline inflation with foods, banks going under, stock market manipulation – all of this – and they’re desperately just trying to buy time to get elected because you’ve got 535 people in Congress who are worried about keeping their jobs. And what I think is going to happen is as this worsens the country is going to lurch very hard to the left in the November election (we’re going to get into this in the next segment) and then as a result of the policies that are going to put us in place, that is going to give us our great depression that I anticipate.

By 2010, the United States is going to be in a major depression.

And then, what is going to happen is we’re going to lurch – almost do a 180 degree turn – and lurch very hard to the right as one disaster after another unfolds upon the country.

Great cigar, not so great forecast…

Source:

Financial Sense Newshour
3rd Hour, Part 2
FinancialSense.com, July 19, 2008

Depression 2010?

The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.

-Unknown

I always try to tune into “Financial Sense Newshour” with Jim Puplava and John Loeffler every week. During part one of the third hour of the June 21 broadcast, Jim Puplava dropped a bomb with the following statement:

The U.S. economy, John, in my opinion, is heading into a depression by the year 2010. Now, rebuilding the country may be the only thing that brings us out of that depression. And remember, severe bear markets in depressions, as we’ve been talking about on this program, are caused by politicians. It takes a politician to turn a recession into a depression. And given the current debate, and the holes that we’ve dug ourselves in, I don’t see how we’re going to avoid this crisis. I mean, the things we’re talking about doing today, should have been done over 10 years ago.

Source:

“Financial Sense Newshour”
Third Hour, Part One
June 21, 2008, Broadcast
FinancialSense.com

BIS: World Economies Could Crash On Scale Not Seen Since Great Depression

I’m always interested in hearing what the Bank for International Settlements has to say. After all, it’s the bank for central banks. According to the London-based online publication Banking Times on June 9 (hat tip WhatReallyHappened.com):

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the organisation that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s.

In its latest quarterly report, the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart.

Reporter Gill Montia talked about the bank’s warning of a “Next Great Depression” in detail. Montia wrote:

According to the BIS, complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression.

The report points out that between March and May of this year, interbank lending continued to show signs of extreme stress and that this could be set to continue well into the future.

The Bank for International Settlements is an international organization which fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve. Established on May 17, 1930, it is the world’s oldest international financial organization.

Source:

“Central bank body warns of Great Depression”
Gill Montia
Banking Times (UK), June 9, 2008

Latest Bank Actions Draw Comparisons To 1929 Crash

With all the upheaval in the global economy lately, comparisons were bound to be made with another era symbolic of financial hardship. Last weekend, Philip Aldrick of the Telegraph (UK) wrote:

Perhaps the most intriguing parallel, though, is the crude attempt at self-preservation made by the investment trusts in 1929 and the banks now.

In the great crash, investment trusts with vast cross-holdings in each other tried to stem their collapse by buying up their own stock in what the economist JK Galbraith in his book, The Great Crash 1929, described as an act of “fiscal self-immolation”. At the time, “support of the stock of one’s own company seemed a bold, imaginative and effective course,” Galbraith wrote, but ultimately the trusts were just “swindling themselves”.

Yet, as I often bring up from time to time, the American writer Mark Twain once said, “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.” Aldrick notes that almost 80 years later:

Modern economists have compared the trusts’ actions with what the banks are now doing. “They seem to be just papering over the cracks,” says Brendan Brown, chief economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

To free their books of the estimated $1,000bn (£505bn) of sub-prime assets and $340bn of leveraged loans banks have been left carrying since the credit markets shut down last year, lenders are offering to sell these damaged assets cut-price and - crucially - are willing to lend investors the money to buy them. In other words, the banks are providing new debt for the old debt they no longer want.

At first glance, as with the investment trusts, the arrangement seems little more than trickery - recycling a bank’s own funds back into its own assets. As one senior industry expert described it: “It is like walking through a hall of mirrors in a fairground. There are far fewer people who really understand it than profess to understand it. Even the central bankers don’t know where all the risk is ending up.”

The Telegraph reporter highlighted a number of examples where banks provided funding for the purchase of debt or subprime assets they own:

• UBS sold a $22 billion portfolio of subprime assets to American fund manager BlackRock
• A consortium of banks financed last year’s £9 billion Alliance Boots merger by offloading £2 billion of the debt to private equity
• Citigroup and Deutsche Bank are each believed to have offloaded $10 to $12 billion of U.S. leveraged loans in recent months, partly funding the purchase themselves. Aldrick noted that these banks, along with Merrill Lynch, have found buyers for “tens of billions of dollars” of their subprime debt, using similar funding arrangements.

Ingenuity, or a disaster in the making?

Source:

“Banks’ credit crisis solutions have echoes of 1929 Depression”
Philip Aldrick
Telegraph (UK), June 1, 2008

U.S. Home Prices Fall 18 Percent In Real Terms Over Past Year

“America’s house prices are falling even faster than during the Great Depression.” Talk about a headline that would make any American homeowner stop dead in his or her tracks. According to the May 29 online edition of The Economist (UK):

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller national house-price index, published this week, showed a slump of 14.1% in the year to the first quarter, the worst since the index began 20 years ago. Now Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale University and co-inventor of the index, has compiled a version that stretches back over a century. This shows that the latest fall in nominal prices is already much bigger than the 10.5% drop in 1932, the worst point of the Depression. And things are even worse than they look. In the deflationary 1930s house prices declined less in real terms. Today inflation is running at a brisk pace, so property prices have fallen by a staggering 18% in real terms over the past year.

Source:

“Through the floor”
The Economist (UK), May 29, 2008

Next Stop, Depression?

Back on March 29, ABC News’ David R. Francis talked about the economic forecast of Robert Parks, a finance professor at Pace University and former chief economist at three Wall Street firms. So, what’s so special about Parks that ABC News would be covering him? According to Francis, Parks is predicting that there is more than a 60% chance the United States will enter into an economic depression.

Even though the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, Francis wrote:

Mr. Parks, however, doubts the cuts will do much to boost the economy. Rather, he sees a further steep fall in housing prices, continued major deficits in the federal budget and in the international trade balance, a tumbling dollar, and a weak stock market leading to a genuine depression with 30 to 35 percent unemployment, greater poverty, more loss of homes, plunging bond and stock prices, even some starvation.

Mother and child during Great Depression

Source: FDR Presidential Library & Museum

He also noted that Parks says he has never predicted a depression before.

The economist thinks that it’s a mistake to rely on money supply growth to help alleviate present economic conditions. Francis wrote:

As Parks sees it, Washington and Wall Street are mostly counting on Fed additions to the money supply to revive the free market and right the economy.

“Automatic recovery is in no way a reliable concept,” he warns, especially if deflation (falling prices) has begun. He recalls warning of the economic damage that the bursting real estate and stock market bubbles would wreak in Japan: That nation suffered stagnation from 1990 to 2001.

Source:

“Are We Heading Into a Depression?”
David R. Francis
ABC News, March 29, 2008

All Rhyme, No Riddle For U.S. Economy?

I’ve always been a student of history. Even when I was a child, I loved reading about history so much that I needed permission at my local library to access the “adult” section with its shelves full of historical texts (and no, it wasn’t that adult section). In fact, upon satisfying the coursework requirements for my major in college, I decided to complete the requirements for a history major as well. Yet, through all these years, one particular observation sticks out. The American writer Mark Twain described it best when he declared:

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

And what I’m seeing, or to be more specific, what I’m hearing, causes me a great deal of concern. I’m starting to wonder, is history starting to rhyme when it comes to the direction of the U.S. economy? If so, the prognosis doesn’t look very good.

The Associated Press’s Jennifer Loven wrote on Tuesday:

And remember Herbert Hoover, infamous for presiding over the onset of the Great Depression? History has slapped him with a laissez-faire legacy even though his administration acted aggressively to try to avert that economic meltdown.

Hoover’s reputation was built in part on remarks viewed as too rosy. “The problem is not at all insurmountable in the long run,” he said on Oct. 6, 1930, as unemployment, poverty and desperation climbed…

Even so, here was Bush making brief remarks to reporters on Monday morning after meeting with his economic advisers: “In the long run, our economy is going to be fine.”

Sound familiar? How about the following? From the CNBC website today (with “rhyming” statements in italics):

After the Federal Reserve’s aggressive moves this week to ease the credit crunch, some on Wall Street are starting to wonder if the worst is finally over.

Well-known banking analyst Richard Bove even delivered a report on the financial sector Thursday with the bold heading, “The Financial Crisis Is Over.”

Bove, of Punk Ziegel, admitted in the note that such a proclamation “sounds ridiculous,” but he genuinely believes the crisis is over.

Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street.
-The Times of London, November 2, 1929

“There will be more negative developments, but they will be meaningless,” Bove wrote.

In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect.
-Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

Later, in an interview on CNBC, Bove said: “I’m convinced that all the signs that you would want to see that would tell you that this thing is over are there. And this is over.”

Financial storm definitely passed.
-Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

Bove said last weekend’s rescue of Bear Stearns was the watershed event that heralded the end. “This event sent so much fear through the market that action was taken,” Bove wrote, calling the Fed’s actions, “innovative, dramatic, and… brilliant.”

I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence.
-Herbert Hoover, December 1929

Is it just a coincidence that all the italicized statements were made during the panic that followed the U.S. stock market crash of October 1929?

According to CNBC, Art Cashin, director of floor operations for UBS Financial Services, remarked:

I admire a courageous call by Dick Bove. I’m not sure we’re totally out of the woods.

I don’t know about you, but it kind of sounds like Cashin was really trying to say, “I would never risk my reputation or job on such a brash statement.”

You can fault Wall Street for a lot of things, but when it comes to remembering bad calls, they make elephants look scatter-brained.

Sources:

“Analysis: Bush Plays Cheerleader Role”
Jennifer Loven
Associated Press, March 18, 2008

“Is the Financial Crisis Over? Some Believe It May Be”
CNBC, March 20, 2008