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Great Depression 2 Right Around The Corner?

Scary stuff from MarketWatch columnist Paul Farrell the other day. On Monday, Farrell wrote:

Now it’s time for my 2008 update, a look into the future where things will get far worse during the next presidential term. And given human behavior, especially in the deep recesses of Wall Street’s “greed is good” DNA, it seems inevitable that no matter how well-intentioned the new president may be Wall Street and Washington’s 41,000 special-interest lobbyists will drive America into the Great Depression 2.

Farrell then goes and rattles off 30 ‘leading edge’ indicators of the next Great Depression. From the piece:

Every day there is more breaking news, proof Wall Street’s greed is already back to “business as usual” and in denial, grabbing more and more from the new “Bailouts-R-Us” bonanza of free taxpayer cash and credits, like two-year-olds in a toy store at Christmas — anything to boost earnings, profits and stock prices, and keep those bonuses and salaries flowing, anything to blow a new bubble.

Scan these 30 “leading indicators.” Each problem has one or more possible solutions, but lacks unified political support. Time’s running out. We’re already at the edge. Add up the trillions in debt: Any collective solution will only compound our problems, because the cumulative debt will overwhelm us, make matters worse:

1. America’s credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA
2. Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new “shadow banking system”
3. Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson’s Wall Street Trojan Horse
4. King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets
5. Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses this year
6. AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders before taxpayers
7. American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed money
8. Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states
9. State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt
10. State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps
11. Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
12. Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
13. Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
14. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
15. Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion
16. Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs
17. Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown
18. Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
19. Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
20. Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
21. Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930’s photos of soup lines
22. Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
23. China’s sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai
24. Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
25. The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities
26. Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
27. New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt
28. Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
29. The “antitaxes” message is a new bubble, a new version of the American dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises

And “leading indicator” number 30? Farrell wrote:

At a recent Reuters Global Finance Summit former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead was interviewed. He was also Ronald Reagan’s Deputy Secretary of State and a former chairman of the N.Y. Fed. He says America’s problems will take years and will burn trillions.

He sees “nothing but large increases in the deficit … I think it would be worse than the depression. … Before I go to sleep at night, I wonder if tomorrow is the day Moody’s and S&P will announce a downgrade of U.S. government bonds.” It’ll get worse because “the public is not prepared to increase taxes. Both parties were for reducing taxes, reducing income to government, and both parties favored a number of new programs, all very costly and all done by the government.”

Reuters concludes: “Whitehead said he is speaking out on this topic because he is concerned no lawmakers are against these new spending programs and none will stand up and call for higher taxes. ‘I just want to get people thinking about this, and to realize this is a road to disaster,’ said Whitehead. ‘I’ve always been a positive person and optimistic, but I don’t see a solution here.’”

Farrell’s conclusion?:

We see the Great Depression 2. Why? Wall Street’s self-interested greed. They are their own worst enemy … and America’s too.

Geez. Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking…

Scenes from Airplane! (1980)
YouTube Video Link

Source:

“30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011”
Paul B. Farrell
MarketWatch, November 17, 2008

For Whom The Bell Tolls, Part 6

Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell.

-Frank Borman, former NASA astronaut and CEO of Eastern Airlines (1975-1986)

Came across the following graphic in my research today. I have a feeling we haven’t seen the last of the bankrupt retailers…

Source: Los Angeles Times

Quotes For The Week

A hat-trick of quotations for you…

The rejection of the package is good because it shows that some people in the U.S. are still sane. A bailout will not buy the U.S. a way out. The government is less powerful than markets in fixing this mess.

-Marc Faber, in a September 30 phone interview with Bloomberg

Sometimes I think we need to put out an ad: “No, we don’t have any more jobs than you do.”

-Jodi Royal-Goodwin, the redevelopment agency director for Reno, Nevada, in response to an influx of homeless people coming to the city looking for jobs

Altogether, we have had eight years of no gains in real median wages, flat stock market returns, and minimal net new jobs. Despite what you have heard, after adjusting for debt spending, population growth and realistic adjustments to the GDP deflator, there have only been 3 or 4 quarters of GDP growth since 2005. If you adjust for military, government and minimum wage positions – i.e. jobs funded by tax payers and jobs that don’t pay anything - there have been absolutely no net new jobs. Bush’s largest gains have been with inflation, oil and food prices, debt, trade deficits, bankruptcies, foreclosures, and healthcare costs. If an assembly of the world’s leading economic strategists were to design the most destructive economic disaster possible, they could not match the results of Bush’s tenure. Even the most loyal Bush supporters will admit he has been an absolute disaster – that is if they’re being honest.

-Mike Stathis, Managing Principal of Apex Venture Advisors and author of America’s Financial Apocalypse, in a Market Orackle (UK) piece from September 14

U.S. Economy Headed Towards Doom And Gloom?

This morning I came across two pieces which were notable in that they painted a gloomy picture for the U.S. economy going forward. Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch talked about TCW Group’s Jeffrey Gundlach’s economic outlook, and wrote:

An influential investment strategist has a dire forecast for U.S. stocks, credit markets and the continued independence of some of the nation’s top financial institutions.

Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer at Los Angeles-based mutual-fund company TCW Group Inc., told clients on a conference call late Wednesday that the crisis in credit and housing may not abate for several years and is actually getting worse.

In the deteriorating climate he sees unfolding, Gundlach said, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index could fall another 30%, giant Citigroup could become an “AIG-sized debacle,” Morgan Stanley would merge with a banking company, Wachovia won’t be able to stand alone, default rates on even prime mortgages could soar, and European banks’ woes are just beginning.

“This is no market for old men,” said Gundlach, who also manages TCW’s flagship Total Return Bond Fund . “This is no market for old-school thinking.”

Gundlach based his assessment on a belief that housing prices still face several more years of decline, a protracted slump, he said, not seen since the Great Depression. Moreover, Gundlach said it’s possible that home prices could be sluggish until 2022.

“If it’s like the Depression experience — and it sure is shaping up that way — it could take several years. Maybe we won’t see a bottom in home prices until 2014,” he said.

Burton talked about Gundlach’s credentials for making such statements. He wrote:

As a forecaster, Gundlach didn’t just climb aboard the gloom-and-doom wagon. He was early to spot the cracks that subprime loans were making in the financial system, and among the first to warn that an era of easy money would come to a bad end.

The MarketWatch reporter noted:

Expect loan default rates to rise, Gundlach said, not just in the subprime market, but among the top-drawer prime borrowers as well. The prime default rate could approach 10% from a current 2% before the carnage is over, he said…

Accordingly, financial institutions may suffer write-offs that could surpass $1 trillion before conditions improve, he said…

The breakdown will take a further toll on U.S. stocks, Gundlach added. The S&P 500 will tumble below 800, he said, about 35% below its 1156 close on Wednesday.

Said Gundlach: “None of us have ever seen this, and it’s no market for old men, but risk aversion is the order of the day.”

Someone else who sees massive problems ahead for the American economy is Harvard economic professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund Kenneth Rogoff. He wrote on the Financial Times (UK) website last night:

Were the financial crisis to end today, the costs would be painful but manageable, roughly equivalent to the cost of another year in Iraq. Unfortunately, however, the financial crisis is far from over, and it is hard to imagine how the US government is going to succeed in creating a firewall against further contagion without spending five to 10 times more than it has already, that is, an amount closer to $1,000bn to $2,000bn.

In other words, $1 to $2 trillion. Rogoff continued:

True, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve have done an admirable job over the past week in forcing the private sector to bear a share of the burden. By forcing the fourth largest investment bank, Lehman Brothers, into bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch into a distressed sale to Bank of America, they helped to facilitate a badly needed consolidation in the financial services sector. However, at this juncture, there is every possibility that the credit crisis will radiate out into corporate, consumer and municipal debt. Regardless of the Fed and Treasury’s most determined efforts, the political pressures for a much larger bail-out, and pressures from the continued volatility in financial markets, are going to be irresistible…

The Ivy League professor talked about the potential fallout from allocating so much money to deal with the escalating financial crisis. He wrote:

It may prove to be possible to fix the system for far less than $1,000bn- $2,000bn. The tough stance taken by regulators this past weekend with the investment banks Lehman and Merrill Lynch certainly helps.

Yet I fear that the American political system will ultimately drive the cost of saving the financial system well up into that higher territory.

A large expansion in debt will impose enormous fiscal costs on the US, ultimately hitting growth through a combination of higher taxes and lower spending. It will certainly make it harder for the US to maintain its military dominance, which has been one of the linchpins of the dollar.

The shrinking financial system will also undermine another central foundation of the strength of the US economy. And it is hard to see how the central bank will be able to resist a period of allowing elevated levels of inflation, as this offers a convenient way for the US to deflate the mounting cost of its private and public debts.

It is a very good thing that the rest of the world retains such confidence in America’s ability to manage its problems, otherwise the financial crisis would be far worse.

Let us hope the US political and regulatory response continues to inspire this optimism. Otherwise, sharply rising interest rates and a rapidly declining dollar could put the US in a bind that many emerging markets are all too familiar with.

A new banana republic?

Sources:

“The worst is yet to come”
Jonathan Burton
MarketWatch, September 18, 2008

“America will need a $1,000bn bail-out”
Kenneth Rogoff
Financial Times (UK), September 17, 2008

How Main Street Views Wall Street’s Crisis

Earlier today, Bloomberg’s Laurence Viele Davidson and Michael Janofsky wrote an interesting piece on the reaction of the American public to the chaos going on down on Wall Street. As I read the article, a number of words came to mind to describe how Main Street sees the latest financial crisis:

Ignorance

“I’m trying to absorb all this,” said Palladino, 48, a television writer, as he had coffee yesterday at the Farmer’s Market in Los Angeles and read newspaper accounts of the demise of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

The significance of the 158-year-old New York firm’s bankruptcy filing eluded him, he said. “I don’t know more than anyone else, financially,” he said. “A bank to me is an ATM and a checking account.”

Blamethrowing

Linda Burke, 57, a customer service consultant with AT&T Inc. in Atlanta, said she figured her retirement savings would take a hit and added that she was angry, though she wasn’t sure at whom.

“If I knew more,” she said, “I could find someone to blame.”…

Jay Leslie, 60, of East Brunswick, New Jersey, said he may not be able to retire as planned in five years.

“I may have to work longer,” said Leslie, who sells women’s clothes. He said he blamed Washington, not Wall Street. “The government didn’t have any idea how serious this was,” he said.

Litigation

That wasn’t the view of Gary Jones, 67, an Atlanta retiree who said he was “so concerned I stayed up the last two nights moving my money into T-bills and other safe havens.”

“We ought to sue the heck out of every board of director for the last 10 years,” he said.

Apathy

For Shelley Sims, 44, who lives in Lawrenceville, Georgia, and works for Georgia Pacific LLC’s import-export division, the failure of storied companies was a wake-up call. She said she would start paying more attention to financial markets.

“When you see names like these in the news, it’s alarming,” Sims said. “It made me get my mortgage papers and investment documents.”

??????

For Chaz Harris, the developments didn’t convince him that the U.S. was in any trouble.

“The economy’s pretty bad, but people are still spending money on what they want,” said Harris, 20, an unemployed warehouse worker who lives with his parents in Weehawken, New Jersey. Referring to the Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. video game, he said, “I mean, ‘Grand Theft Auto’ did half a billion in seven days. So the economy’s not that bad.”

New economic indicator?
Source: WikiGTA

Source:

“Americans Certain Lehman’s Bad, Just Not Sure It’s Bad for Them”
Laurence Viele Davidson, Michael Janofsky
Bloomberg, September 16, 2008

A New York Nightmare

Wall Streeters and New Yorkers, you may want to skip reading the following post if you don’t want to ruin a good day. Reuters’ Joan Gralla reported Monday:

New York Gov. David Paterson on Monday said Wall Street might lay off 40,000 workers in a worst-case scenario following Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy filing and problems at other big financial firms…

New York’s banks and brokerages generate one of every five tax dollars in the state. The state’s budget is already suffering from declines on Wall Street, and Paterson last month had said that tax revenues would be hurt by declines in Wall Street bonuses.

Paterson, who got lawmakers to cut the state’s budget by more than $400 million in August in an emergency session, on Monday said he might have to recall lawmakers again, saying he would not be surprised if the deficit spiraled back up.

In addition to job cuts on Wall Street, Paterson said as many as 120,000 jobs might be cut if positions in service industries that rely on Wall Street are included…

Financial sector jobs help create as many as four other positions in services ranging from legal to sales, according to Ross DeVol, director of regional economics, for the Santa Monica, California-based Milken Institute.

Gralla also noted that:

Bankers, brokers and traders earned an average salary and bonus of $340,312 a year in 2006, according to James Brown, a labor market analyst with the state Labor Department…

Wall Street’s job force totaled 181,000 in July, which was down 11,000 from July 2007, Brown said. Employment on Wall Street peaked at 200,300 in December 2000.

Sounds like there’ll be a lot of used Maseratis for sale soon…

For Sale (model not included)

Source:

“NY gov sees Wall St losing up to 40,000 jobs”
Joan Gralla
Reuters, September 15, 2008

Consumer Bankruptcies Climb

I came across a piece in today’s Wall Street Journal that talked about how consumer bankruptcies are climbing. According to the American Bankruptcy Institute, U.S. consumer bankruptcy filings in June were 37.1% higher than a year ago. In the article, Samuel Gerdano, ABI’s executive director, said, “Underlying concerns of high debt loads are still a constant, pointing to rising filings in the future.” Other research confirms this disturbing trend. On July 3, the National Bankruptcy Research Center, a subsidiary of Lundquist Consulting, Inc., industry leader in bankruptcy statistics and analytics, released their 2Q 2007 findings, which showed the fifth consecutive increase in bankruptcy filings since the first quarter of 2006. From April to June 2007, 200,732 filings took place, an 11.6% increase over the first quarter of 2007 and 40.6% higher than the same period in 2006. NBKRC found that on an annualized basis, 1 in every 136 households filed bankruptcy in 2Q 2007, as opposed to 1 in every 190 households in 2Q 2006. California led the country with 16,251 bankruptcy filings in the second quarter of 2007.