Realtors: California Housing Recovery Finally Here
California Realtors are claiming the housing bottom is in for their state— once again.
From Bloomberg’s Daniel Taub on Wednesday:
California, one-time hub of subprime mortgage lending and the nation’s leader in home foreclosures, has turned the corner toward a housing recovery, according to the state Association of Realtors.
Single-family home prices in California rose for the eighth consecutive month in October. The median cost of an existing, detached house gained 0.3 percent from the previous month to $297,500. Prices dropped about 3.2 percent from a year earlier, compared with annual declines of 7.3 percent in September and 17 percent in August.
“California has hit and passed the bottom of this real estate cycle,” Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist of the Los Angeles-based Realtors group, said in a statement today…
“There are a lot of minefields — a lot of uncertainty going forward — but we were looking at eight consecutive months of increases in the statewide median, and we are seeing multiple offers” on many homes for sale, she said. “It’s going to be a slow recovery.”
I’m not so sure I trust Ms. Appleton-Young’s housing forecasts.
After all, I’ve read about her mentioning a California housing bottom and recovery someplace before.
Actually, make that a few places…
From the San Diego Union-Tribune, December 15, 2005:
Despite rising interest rates, a growing for-sale inventory and a slowing sales pace, the county’s shortage of housing will prevent prices from dropping steeply, speakers asserted. “It’s Economics 101,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. “It’s demand and supply.” Addressing the statewide economy, Appleton-Young forecast “a slight decline in home sales” for California in 2006. Many established homeowners have cashed out rising equity and now lack the funds to trade up to larger homes, she said. “We are going to see people staying in their homes longer.”
(Editor’s note: Sales of existing single-family homes in California plummeted 23 percent in 2006.)
From the Press Democrat, February 2, 2007:
Overall, sales of existing homes will decline 7 percent across California this year, Appleton-Young told local business leaders Thursday at the annual North Bay Economic Outlook Conference in Rohnert Park. But the downturn is tapering off, she said, compared to last year’s 23 percent decline in sales.
“The worst is over,” she said.
(Editor’s note: California home sales fell 26 percent in 2007).
From the San Gabriel Valley Tribune, January 16, 2008:
Leslie Appleton-Young, senior vice president and chief economist of the California Association of Realtors, blamed the credit crunch and buyer reluctance for a negative housing outlook for 2008.
“I think we are just about, if not already at, the bottom,” she said. “It’s not going to get much lower than that.”
(Hat-tip Housing Bubble Hall of Shame)
Source:
“California Housing Market Turns Corner, Realtors Say (Update2)”
Daniel Taub
Bloomberg, November 25, 2009
November 28th, 2009 at 8:27 am
Realtors repeatedly caling the botom agin and again is even more laughable than Microsoft’s claims that their new version of Windows has finally solved all of its problems.
November 28th, 2009 at 10:18 am
Thanks for the comment Mammoth.
“Realtors repeatedly caling the botom agin and again is even more laughable than Microsoft’s claims that their new version of Windows has finally solved all of its problems.”
It’s not just the Realtors, it’s others as well.
I used to think it was laughable too, only destroying an individual’s/group’s credibility, until someone pointed out that one day they’ll get the call right— and publicize it. So the next time you hear about them, it will be followed with a statement like “so and so, who correctly called the bottom of the housing market.”
All the while, they’re crossing their fingers that we’ve forgotten all their miserable calls from the past.