Economists: Bad Idea Making Fed A Super-Regulator
I already knew the Obama administration’s proposal to grant additional regulatory powers to the Federal Reserve was a horrible, misguided idea.
I mean, who in their right mind would propose to make the Fed responsible for reining in “systemic risks” in the financial system when the evidence shows it has been unable to identify and prevent such threats time and time again?
However, don’t take my word for it. From the New York Times’ Edmund Andrews this morning:
Two economists with longstanding ties to the Federal Reserve warned Congress on Thursday that it would be a mistake to make the Fed a super-regulator in charge of reining in “systemic risk” and financial institutions considered “too big to fail.”
In what is shaping up as a political battle over a crucial part of President Obama’s plan to overhaul financial regulation, the economists told a House panel that the Fed had consistently failed to recognize financial catastrophes until they were well under way.
“I do not know of any single clear example in which the Federal Reserve acted in advance to head off a crisis or a series of banking or financial failures,” said Allan H. Meltzer, professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University and the author of a history of the Fed.
In written testimony prepared for the House Financial Services Committee, Mr. Meltzer ticked off a long list of financial crises — the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the savings-and-loan collapse of the early 1990s, the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the recent binge in reckless mortgages — and argued that the Fed had either failed to take preventive action or made things worse.
“We all know that the Federal Reserve did nothing to prevent the current credit crisis,” Mr. Meltzer said. “It has not recognized that its actions promoted moral hazard and encouraged incentives to take risk.”
A broader warning came from John B. Taylor, a top Treasury official under President George W. Bush who was considered a potential candidate to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman.
Mr. Taylor said that expanding the Fed’s power would dilute its main mission of steering the economy, create conflicts of interest, reduce its credibility and jeopardize its independence.
“The administration proposal would grant to the Fed significant new powers, more powers than it has ever had before,” he told lawmakers. “My experience in government and elsewhere is that institutions work best when they focus on a limited set of understandable goals.”
The Obama administration is proposing to make the Fed responsible for identifying and reining in “systemic risks,” like the explosion of reckless mortgages that nearly destroyed the financial system and started a recession that has yet to hit bottom.
The Fed would also be in charge of regulating giant financial institutions that are considered too big to fail, perhaps by imposing higher capital requirements on them.
But the proposal is highly controversial. Banking and Wall Street executives generally support the idea, as do current and former officials at the Fed and some Democratic lawmakers, like Representative Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
Source:
“Two Authorities on Fed Advise Congress Against Expanding Its Power”
Edmund L. Andrews
New York Times, July 10, 2009




July 11th, 2009 at 10:44 am
This blog is getting more and more partisan, showing only one side of the opinion and not the other. There are some people who are giving a lot of praise to the Obama administration, like Jack Welch, Mohamed El-erian and others.
There should be posts, for example, on how Jim Rogers keeps on getting his predictions wrong. When he said that “the pound is a terrible currency” and he “sold all his sterling” at USD1.40, look where the pound is now? USD1.63 today and Goldman believes that it will hit USD1.7 in 3-mths time. Soros got it right by saying that he have covered his shorts in pound at USD1.40. You follow Rogers you lose all your money. Nor is it true that Jim Rogers’ agricultural venture is getting on well.
July 11th, 2009 at 8:05 pm
The Federal Reserve IS systemic risk.
No that’s wrong so I take it back. The correct one:
The Federal Reserve IS systemic failure.
Just take a look at the one dollar bill. First, it says “In God we trust.” Come now, what God has to do with a piece of paper create at will by man. Second, it says Federal Reserve Note. Meaning it has nothing to do with the US government, nor the people or the country!! Yes, the Sec of Treasury signs it but why? There are no promise or obligation to anything. I can sign it for all it matters.
If my corner grocery store issues such a piece of paper I’d laugh. But no, some strange private bank issues trillions of this thing for the whole country. That’s the very definition of systemic failure.
There, feel better now?
July 12th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Thanks for the comment Einstein. Got to love fiat currency…
July 12th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
@Einstein, well you got to love the “In God we Trust” pieces of paper because the Asians and Middle-east people swap real goods and oil for these pieces of paper.
July 12th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Thanks for the comment Steve.
“This blog is getting more and more partisan, showing only one side of the opinion and not the other. There are some people who are giving a lot of praise to the Obama administration, like Jack Welch, Mohamed El-erian and others. ”
Couple of things…
You might want to reconsider the use of the word “partisan” in your comment.
Someone could mistake “partisan,” within the context of your comment, as meaning that you’re suggesting Boom2Bust.com is becoming an anti-Obama, anti-Democrat platform.
Long-time readers of this blog know for a fact this isn’t true, and that “open season” exists on any politician of any political affiliation. Posts were just as critical of the Bush administration as they are of the present White House.
If anyone doubts this, they’re invited to peruse the blog’s archives.
Perhaps “selective” is a more appropriate word to use than “partisan.”
In which case, readers should keep a few things to keep in mind while on Boom2Bust.com…
First, Boom2Bust.com is an independent financial weblog, or “blog.” The material published on the blog reflects the creator’s/editor’s personal belief that the United States is heading towards a financial crash in the near future. From the “About” page:
As I replied to a different reader the other day:
If a reader is looking for material about “green shoots,” an economic recovery, a housing rebound, or praise of the Obama administration (or any other administration between 1982-2007) for their handling of the financial crisis, chances are they’re not going to find it here— at least in the short-term.
And speaking about the short-term…
“There should be posts, for example, on how Jim Rogers keeps on getting his predictions wrong. When he said that “the pound is a terrible currency” and he “sold all his sterling” at USD1.40, look where the pound is now? USD1.63 today and Goldman believes that it will hit USD1.7 in 3-mths time. Soros got it right by saying that he have covered his shorts in pound at USD1.40. You follow Rogers you lose all your money. Nor is it true that Jim Rogers’ agricultural venture is getting on well.”
I think you’ll find a more-receptive audience on this topic over at Investorazzi.com, where Jim Rogers is one of the legendary investors I cover on a regular basis. But since you brought him up here, I will be happy to address your statements now:
“There should be posts, for example, on how Jim Rogers keeps on getting his predictions wrong.”
Actually, The Guardian (UK) investigated Rogers’ investment calls over time and found they’ve been more hit than miss.
“When he said that ‘the pound is a terrible currency’ and he ’sold all his sterling’ at USD1.40, look where the pound is now? USD1.63 today and Goldman believes that it will hit USD1.7 in 3-mths time. Soros got it right by saying that he have covered his shorts in pound at USD1.40.
You are talking about the short-term here. Rogers focuses on the long-term. Here’s what he actually said:
The key to understanding and appreciating Jim Rogers’ handiwork is that funds are allocated based on the big picture rather than the short-term view.
What is it that Rogers says time and time again? He’s the world’s worst trader:
“You follow Rogers you lose all your money”
Tell that to those people who were in the legendary Quantum Fund, which Jim and George Soros co-founded in 1970 and which, over the next 10 years, gained 4,200% while the S&P advanced 47%.
“Nor is it true that Jim Rogers’ agricultural venture is getting on well”
You have to be more specific. Which venture, and what do you mean by “well?” Regardless, this seems to be another case of too much emphasis on short-term results as opposed to long-term performance. Again, here is what Rogers actually said:
July 13th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Thanks for the comment Steve.
“@Einstein, well you got to love the “In God we Trust” pieces of paper because the Asians and Middle-east people swap real goods and oil for these pieces of paper.”
While the official line coming from America’s trading partners is that they have faith in the U.S. dollar— recent headlines suggest these same nations are looking to avoid accumulating more greenbacks when possible.
July 14th, 2009 at 10:03 am
“The material published on the blog reflects the creator’s/editor’s personal belief that the United States is heading towards a financial crash in the near future.”
I think we’re in the same boat here. Would you venture a guess/assumption of just when we will go over the cliff’s edge, or do you think that the crash will be more of a long descent down the slippery slope?
I am thinking that when California finally kneels before Congress for a bailout, and is soundly rejected, that this may be the beginning of the second leg down – especially so if this occurs in October.
Again – what do you see as the likely timing of this crash?
Thanks,
Mammoth
July 14th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Hi Chris, Sorry for the comment. I was just trying to point something out. I just feel that the blog can sometimes be a bit unbalanced. (Partisan is probably the wrong word.) Even Buffet gave the federal government credit for fighting this crisis. Everyone knows that the problem in the United States is very serious. There is a credit card crisis just looming around the corner.
For Rogers, I was referring to his commodities ETF. He should have been more forthright in telling people that the commodities market was in a bubble, instead of just trying to sell his fund. Soros did warn people that the commodities market was in a serious bubble during an interview with FT. Many people who bought into Rogers’ ETF during first half of 08 would not have survived. Rogers also said that people should not diversify. This is exactly contrary to what other seasoned investors (esp. the Bill Gross type) advocate.
July 14th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
A Chinese friend of mine remarked to me that he thinks the United States has reached the highest form of capitalism, in that you only need to give pieces of paper to get real goods. Then I told him that America has actually reached “enlightenment”, because Americans can sell CDOs to Asia and get even those pieces of paper back. How fabulous. I wonder when can China “do an America”.
July 15th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Thanks for the comment/question Mammoth.
“Would you venture a guess/assumption of just when we will go over the cliff’s edge, or do you think that the crash will be more of a long descent down the slippery slope?
Again – what do you see as the likely timing of this crash?”
Good post topic… should have something out about this in the next few days.
BTW, I’m also working on a piece related to the topic you suggested re: the NAR’s claim that “flawed” appraisals are somehow derailing real estate sales. This is coming out soon too!
July 15th, 2009 at 11:11 am
No problem Steve.
“I just feel that the blog can sometimes be a bit unbalanced. (Partisan is probably the wrong word.) Even Buffet gave the federal government credit for fighting this crisis.”
Buffett, plus don’t forget George Soros too. This is the way I look at it. On the interventions by Washington and the Fed in the economy and larger financial system, no one should be surprised to see economic news in the days ahead that’s not “as bad” as it’s been. And further down the road, Americans might even start hearing about “the recovery.” But is it a genuine rebound? Or is the situation like Rogers put it recently:
I’m inclined to think it’s the latter, and that Washington is only kicking the can (“financial reckoning day”) further down the road. I only give credit where and when credit’s due. That being said, the Obama administration continues to carry out their predecessor’s course of action in dealing with the financial crisis— which, I feel, will only increase the intensity of the financial pain felt when the house of cards topples.
Now, even if our political and economic leadership allowed crippled financial institutions and others to fail, as Rogers had advised in the past, I wonder if it’s already too late. As trillions are already spoken for/invested in the present course of action, I think we are past “the point of no return.”
“There is a credit card crisis just looming around the corner.”
Definitely one of a number of threats.
“He should have been more forthright in telling people that the commodities market was in a bubble, instead of just trying to sell his fund.”
This was not going to happen as Rogers doesn’t see commodities as being in a bubble. In fact, he repeatedly cites supply concerns, and says fundamentals remain the same. Despite any corrections, Rogers is convinced hard assets are still in a long-term bull phase.
“Rogers also said that people should not diversify. This is exactly contrary to what other seasoned investors (esp. the Bill Gross type) advocate.”
Depends on which investor you’re referring to. For example, it is well-known that Warren Buffett is not a big fan of diversification. In fact, he once said:
July 15th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Thanks for the comment Steve.
“I wonder when can China ‘do an America’.”
Question is, do they really want to “do an America?” Last I heard, they were laughing at us.
July 16th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Chris, Well that was when Geithner was speaking at Peking University isn’t it?
Goldman and JPMorgan came out with big profits. I am very interested in what will happen to the financial sector, namely, whether it will still be such a big money making machine as it has been since the 1980s (think Liar’s Poker). Jim Rogers said that finance is finished after Lehman’s collapse. Marc Faber also mentioned that for the past 25 years people working in finance have been living in paradise. Earlier, there was a NYTimes article that plots the percentage pay difference between finance and non-finance sector against the years (from 1900 to now). It shows +30% in the 1920s, the a slow and gradual collapse after 1930s to a small negative during the 1970s (i.e., people in finance are earning less than people in other sector, adjusted for gender, age, educational background, etc). My question is – will the financial industry still be a money making machine, or will there be a gradual collapse in pay again over the coming 10 to 20 years?
July 20th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Thanks for the comment Steve.
“Chris, Well that was when Geithner was speaking at Peking University isn’t it?”
Yep.
“I am very interested in what will happen to the financial sector, namely, whether it will still be such a big money making machine as it has been since the 1980s (think Liar’s Poker).”
I think the financial sector will still be a “money-making” machine. But I think the “big money” will be made overseas, to in those areas where the money is flowing to and where new centers of finance will gradually take the reigns from New York and London.
August 28th, 2009 at 7:17 am
That sounds good and bad. According to HSBC’s Stephen Green, London won’t shrink after this crisis, but New York will not be the centre of the world. I hope he is right.
The giant finance bubble distorted the economy on both the supply and demand side. The adjustment will be painful.
Thanks Chris!