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Mexico Worried About Future U.S. Invasion

Posted In: Crime, Homeland Security, Iran, Latin America, Mexico, Military, U.S. Government

It’s not illegal weapons or rambunctious tourists crossing into Mexico that has some Mexicans worried these days. Rather, it’s the prospect of an invasion by American troops. Diana Washington Valdez from the El Paso Times wrote last week:

Mexico is one of two countries that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,” according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command’s “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse:

Pakistan and Mexico.

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.“

Just how bad is the situation south of the border? The Associated Press’ Traci Carl wrote this weekend:

Retiring CIA chief Michael Hayden told reporters on Friday that that Mexico could rank alongside Iran as a challenge for Obama — perhaps a greater problem than Iraq.

The U.S. Justice Department said last month that Mexican gangs are the “biggest organized crime threat to the United States.” National security adviser Stephen Hadley said last week that the worsening violence threatens Mexico’s very democracy.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff recently told The New York Times he ordered additional border security plans to be drawn up this summer as kidnappings and killings spilled into the U.S.

The alarm is spreading to the private sector as well. Mexico, Latin America’s second biggest economy and the United States’ third biggest oil supplier, is one of the top 10 global risks for 2009 identified by the Eurasia Group, a New York-based consulting firm.

And what is the “official” Mexican response to such talk? Carl noted:

Mexico is brushing aside the U.S. concerns, with Interior Secretary Fernando Gomez-Mont saying Wednesday: “It seems inappropriate to me that you would call Mexico a security risk. There are problems in Mexico that are being dealt with, that we can continue to deal with, and that’s what we are doing.”

However, unofficially, Mexicans might be a little bit more concerned than their government officials are portraying. The AP reporter added:

The grim assessments from north of the border got wide play in the Mexican media but came as no surprise to people here. Many said the solution lies in getting the U.S. to give more help and let in more migrant workers who might otherwise turn to the drug trade to make a living.

Otherwise the drug wars will spill ever more heavily into America, said Manuel Infante, an architect. “There is a wave of barbarity that is heading toward the U.S.,” he said. “We are an uncomfortable neighbor.”

There’s concern due to a Defense Department document that equals Mexico to Pakistan, alleging that the violence and instability in that country might trigger a U.S. invasion…