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Archive for June, 2008

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And from our sister blog Investorazzi.com today…

“Warren Buffett Warns Of U.S. Stagflation”

“I think the ‘flation’ part will heat up and I think the ‘stag’ part will get worse.”

“Jeremy Grantham: Turmoil In Global Economy Not Nearly Over”

Grantham says the turmoil is not nearly over. “I’m very confident the global economy, and the U.S. economy, will be weaker than people expect, for longer than people expect,” he says.

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Quote For The Week

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Another one bites the dust. Another prediction for a turnaround in the housing market, that is. Back on January 4, White House chief economist Edward Lazear talked to CNBC about the housing slump. From my post that day:

By the way, earlier today Mr. Lazear told CNBC in an interview that the U.S. housing slump was almost over:

The big drain on the economy for the past year and a half has been housing… eventually that is going to bottom out and when that bottom outs, even if it doesn’t expand, it will remove that negative drag on the economy.

Housing has been unfortunately a negative and that should stop probably in the next six months.

While the housing numbers for June aren’t due out for some time yet, I think it’s pretty safe to say at the end of Lazear’s six-month timeframe that there doesn’t appear to be any let up to the U.S. housing bust.

Mr. Lazear shouldn’t feel too bad. He joins a distinguished group of economists, analysts, journalists, etcetera, who have tried, and failed, to call a bottom in the U.S. housing market.

Next, please.

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Maintenance And Upgrades

Will continue until Monday, June 30, at which time new material will appear on Boom2Bust.com.

Consider this my “summer vacation” from posting…

Christopher E. Hill
Editor

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RBS Predicts Stock, Credit Market Crash

Wanted to bring up the following story earlier, but unfortunately I was out of town for a few days. Better late than never, I always say. From CNBC on June 18:

The Royal Bank of Scotland issued a stark warning to investors Wednesday, stating global stock and credit markets could be on the verge of a fully-fledged crash as central banks have their hands tied by soaring inflation, the Telegraph reported.

“A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared,” Bob Janjuah, credit strategist at RBS, told the UK daily paper.

The S&P 500 index is likely to slump by more than 300 points by September, according to a report from the bank’s research team, as “all the chickens come home to roost” from over-easy lending practices and other excesses of the global boom period, the report quoted by the Telegraph said.

“I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names. Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job,” Mr Janjuah told the paper.

RBS expects US stocks to continue to gain until early July before the effects of the oil spike start to drag on momentum, the Telegraph said.

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“A very nasty period is soon to be upon us”

Source:

“RBS Warns of Stock, Credit Market Crash: Report”
CNBC, June 18, 2008

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Depression 2010?

The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop.

-Unknown

I always try to tune into “Financial Sense Newshour” with Jim Puplava and John Loeffler every week. During part one of the third hour of the June 21 broadcast, Jim Puplava dropped a bomb with the following statement:

The U.S. economy, John, in my opinion, is heading into a depression by the year 2010. Now, rebuilding the country may be the only thing that brings us out of that depression. And remember, severe bear markets in depressions, as we’ve been talking about on this program, are caused by politicians. It takes a politician to turn a recession into a depression. And given the current debate, and the holes that we’ve dug ourselves in, I don’t see how we’re going to avoid this crisis. I mean, the things we’re talking about doing today, should have been done over 10 years ago.

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Source:

“Financial Sense Newshour”
Third Hour, Part One
June 21, 2008, Broadcast
FinancialSense.com

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FDIC Ads: Should We Be Worried?

Leafing through the June 30 issue of Time magazine, I stumbled upon an advertisement from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC…

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For those readers not familiar with the FDIC, their mission, according to their website, is to preserve and promote public confidence in the U.S. financial system by insuring deposits in banks and thrift institutions for at least $100,000; by identifying, monitoring and addressing risks to the deposit insurance funds; and by limiting the effect on the economy and the financial system when a bank or thrift institution fails.

Now, the FDIC says the ads were meant to commemorate the seventy-fifth anniversary of its creation as an “independent agency” of the U.S. government. However, some suspect there may be an ulterior motive for the ad program. Keep in mind that back on February 26, I discussed in a post how the fourth quarter of 2007 was the worst bank and thrift performance since the fourth quarter of 1991, whereas the FDIC classified 76 banks as “problem” institutions for the quarter (up from 65 a quarter earlier). In addition, it was revealed that the FDIC was looking to bring back 25 retirees from its division of resolutions and receiverships. Many of these agency veterans likely worked for the FDIC during the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 financial institutions failed amid the savings-and-loan crisis.

Additional justification for the FDIC to roll out a “reassurance campaign” appeared in the following months. On June 5, John Poirier of Reuters talked about an appearance by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair on Capitol Hill, and wrote:

An increasing number of banks face high exposure to deteriorating conditions in commercial real estate and construction lending, Bair told a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the state of the banking industry.

“There is also the possibility that future failures could include institutions of greater size than we have seen in the recent past,” Bair said. “Uncertainties in today’s economic environment continue to pose significant challenges for the banking industry, households, and bank regulators.”

So far this year, four small U.S. banks with deposits insured by the FDIC have failed, up from three in 2007. The agency last week boosted its list of troubled banks to 90, which have a combined $26 billion in assets.

Ironically, the FDIC ad I came across featured a photo of the $100,000 Series 1934 Gold Certificate featuring the portrait of President Wilson, the largest denomination of currency ever printed by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing. Nothing more comforting than seeing the words “insuring” and “protecting” next to the image of a U.S. gold certificate with the phrase “one hundred thousand dollars in gold payable to bearer on demand as authorized by law.” Too bad those dollars sitting in banks across the United States haven’t been backed by the precious metal since 1971, when President Nixon abandoned the Bretton Woods Agreement and effectively took the U.S. off the gold standard. As the U.S Treasury says on its website:

Federal Reserve notes are not redeemable in gold, silver or any other commodity, and receive no backing by anything.

Oh, Tricky Dick, what another fine mess you’ve gotten us into…

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Source:

“UPDATE 1-Bigger U.S. bank failures may be coming – FDIC”
John Poirier
Reuters, June 5, 2008

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Quote For The Week

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Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement. Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the cells of the economic body- the producers and consumers themselves.

-Herbert Hoover (31st President of the United States. 1874-1964)

The Beautiful South, “Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now” (2004)
YouTube Video Link

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And from our sister blog Investorazzi.com today…

“Jeremy Grantham Compares Today To Start Of Great Depression”

GLOBE AND MAIL: You draw comparisons between what’s happening today and the start of the Great Depression.
GRANTHAM: We’re in that 1929-30 window, where we’ve had a shock to the system.

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Half Of Wall Street Bank Profits Up In Smoke

What a difference a year makes. Louise Story of the New York Times wrote today:

Only a year ago, Wall Street reveled in an era of superlatives: record deals, record profit, record pay. But a mere 12 months later, nearly half of the profits that major banks reaped during that age of riches have vanished.

The numbers are staggering. Between early 2004 and mid-2007, a period of unprecedented wealth on Wall Street, seven of the nation’s largest financial companies earned a combined $254 billion in profits.

But since last July, those same banks — Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — have written down the value of the assets they hold by $107.2 billion, gutting their earnings and share prices. Worldwide, the reckoning totals $380 billion, much of which reflects a plunge in the value of tricky mortgage investments.

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Funny, but the word “tricky” doesn’t really come to mind when it come to describing those mortgage investments. Something with four letters beginning in “c” and ending in “p” seems to be a better fit.

Source:

“Nearly Half of Wall St. Bank Profits Are Gone”
Louise Story
New York Times, June 16, 2008

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Mozilogate?

Leave it to Diana Olick, CNBC’s real estate reporter, to come up with another doozie. This time, she’s unearthed some skeletons that belong to a few U.S. Senators regarding their dealings with Countrywide Financial. Earlier today, Olick wrote:

Apparently, Countrywide has a VIP program, known as “Friends of Angelo,” where the lender gives certain people better deals, maybe shaves a point or something, simply due to who those certain people are, basically saving them all thousands of dollars.

Now how about Senator Chris Dodd, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, who has been spearheading the Senate’s housing rescue plan? Or Senator Kent Conrad, who is a member of the Senate Finance Committee? They got the deals. Conrad put out a statement saying, “Although I did not ask for or know that I was receiving a discount, and even though I was offered a competitive loan from another lender, I do not want to have received preferential treatment.” Conrad now says he’ll donate $10,500 to charity (Habitat for Humanity) and refi his loan (good luck with today’s mortgage market!).

I thought penance only worked for the Catholics. The CNBC reporter continued:

Senator Dodd’s statement reads: “As a United States Senator, I would never ask or expect to be treated differently than anyone else refinancing their home.”

I’m pretty sure there a number of Senators who would be upset if they weren’t treated differently. Their staff could vouch for that. Olick concluded:

So am I to believe that these high-ranking Senators, and a former Fannie CEO, didn’t read their loan documents to figure out that they were getting a special deal?? Did they not know enough about how mortgages work to figure it out? And why would Mozilo give these folks a special deal if he didn’t expect them to at least know about it??

The Senators are claiming they had no idea. Come on. I realize I’m supposed to accept that all those subprime borrowers didn’t understand their loans, but to accept that these well-educated leaders of our government didn’t–well that insults my intelligence, and every borrower’s out there.

I wonder if the next time we hear about Conrad, Dodd, and the Countrywide issue, they’ll be pleading the Fifth…

Source:

“Senators As Confused Borrowers? Don’t Insult Our Intelligence”
Diana Olick
CNBC, June 16, 2008

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From Jingle Mail To Buy And Bail

First, there was “jingle mail.” Now, it’s “buy and bail.” Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal wrote yesterday:

Next month, Michelle Augustine plans to walk away from her four-bedroom house in a Sacramento, Calif., subdivision and let the property fall into foreclosure. But before doing so, she hopes to lock in the purchase of another home nearby.

“I can find the same exact house as what I live in right now for half the price,” says Augustine, 44, who runs a child-care service out of her home. She says she soon will be unable to afford her monthly payments, which will jump to $4,000 from $3,300 in August, and she doesn’t want to continue to own a home that is now worth $200,000 less than what she paid for it two years ago.

In markets hit hardest by falling home prices and rising foreclosures, lenders and brokers are discovering a new phenomenon: the “buy and bail,” in which borrowers with good credit buy a new home—often at a much lower price—then bail out of the “upside-down” mortgage on their first home.

Homeowners are able to pull off this gambit—which some lenders and real-estate agents call mortgage fraud—by taking advantage of mortgage-lending practices that allow them to buy a new primary residence before their existing residence has been sold.

And with the lending industry in disarray as it tries to restructure millions of mortgages, some boast they are able to pull off the strategy with ease.

The best part of Timiraos’ piece?

In some cases, homeowners are coached through the buy-and-bail process by real-estate agents and brokers who see nothing wrong with it…

“It’s just a business decision,” says Linda Caoili, a Sacramento real-estate agent who is working with Augustine and others who are considering walking away from their mortgages. “If you’re upside-down $250,000, why would you keep it? It just doesn’t make sense.”

Readers- fraud or fair play?

Source:

“Some owners plot walking away from foreclosed home”
Nick Timiraos
Chicago Tribune, June 15, 2008


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Ross Perot Warns Of Economic Crisis, Launches PerotCharts.com

Glad someone else is spreading the word. Definitely worth a visit:

Ross Perot Launches Public Information Website About U.S. Economic Crisis

PerotCharts.com Illustrates that We Are Running Out Of Time to Stop Deficit Spending

DALLAS, TEXAS - JUNE 16, 2008 /PRNewswire/Ross Perot, business leader and former presidential candidate, announced today the launch of “PerotCharts.com,” a public information website that contains objective, factual information about the current economic crisis in America. The site is being launched as an alert and appeal for American citizens to inform themselves about federal government spending. Perot said, “The U.S. national debt reached $9.4 TRILLION on April 30, and it is increasing by more than $1 billion every day. We are leaving our children and grandchildren with debt they cannot possibly pay.”

PerotCharts.com consists of three major components: a video featuring Ross Perot discussing the purpose of the website, a blog where new charts and other information are posted daily for study and comment, and a narrated chart presentation explaining the economic problems our country faces.

The website is not affiliated with any political party or candidate. Most of the data and research for the charts is gathered from official government sources.

“The economic crisis facing America today is far greater than anything since the Great Depression,” said Perot. “Our federal government continues to spend us deeper into debt. The American people must get directly involved and demand an end to deficit spending. This website will provide information for citizens to do just that.”

Like the economic charts Perot employed in his 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, which served as snapshots of complex economic issues presented in simple terms, PerotCharts.com features the latest official government figures about the real conditions of our economy for everyone to see and consider. The site is designed to be a reservoir of information about the economy, and provides an accurate look at where the money comes from and where it goes.

David Walker, former U.S. Comptroller General and current president and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation said, “Ross Perot is the father of fiscal charts, and PerotCharts.com will help Americans understand the serious fiscal challenges facing our nation. These updated economic charts will also serve to hold elected officials accountable while accelerating needed actions to help ensure that our collective future will be better than our past. What we need now is leadership from our elected officials.”

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives said, “Ross Perot is exactly right to echo Winston Churchill’s famous cry for ‘action this day’ to rally the nation to reform our entitlement programs, end deficit spending, and balance the federal budget. PerotCharts.com contains information every citizen needs to know so we can demand real change to get the nation on the right track.

David L. Boren, former U.S. Senator and governor of Oklahoma and current president of the University of Oklahoma said, “The facts speak for themselves in Ross Perot’s powerful website for all Americans. Runaway spending and a rising national debt will destroy America’s future as a great nation. As more of our debt is held by those in other countries, our political independence is put at risk by our economic dependency. We must act now!

“We simply cannot wait any longer to do something about runaway deficit spending,” Perot said. “This website addresses a number of issues, and we will add more in the coming weeks and months. But there is a common thread running through all of them. We cannot solve these problems unless we have the ability to pay for the solutions. Getting spending under control is the first step in that process.”

For more information, visit PerotCharts.com.

Source:

“Ross Perot Launches Public Information Website About U.S. Economic Crisis”
PRNewswire, June 16, 2008

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Are Rich Americans Leaving The Country?

I heard the rumor the other week. A number of wealthy Americans are leaving, or making plans to leave, the country. The player-haters can’t wait (of course). Consider the following comment that appeared on DemocraticUnderground.com:

LEAVE. Take your money and go. America will survive without you…

So rather than ruin our country for the other 90% whom you despise. Go away. Take all of your precious money and go elsewhere. Even if it means depression we will be better off in the long run without your manipulation of our government just for the sake of having your cake and eating it too.

And it appears some politicians can’t wait for the rich to leave either. On June 11, CNN Money senior writer Jeanne Sahadi talked about the 2008 U.S. presidential candidates’ proposed tax policies. She wrote:

But voters really want to know one thing: How would the presidential candidates’ views trickle down to their tax bills? A report released Wednesday by a nonpartisan policy group in Washington, D.C., takes a big first step toward answering that question.

According to the Tax Policy Center’s findings, Sahadi wrote that under presumptive Democratic nominee for president Barack Obama:

High-income taxpayers would pay more in taxes, while everyone else’s tax bill would be reduced…

Obama’s plan would keep the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts in place for everyone except those making more than roughly $250,000, and he would increase the capital gains tax.

…the highest-income households – those with at least $603,000 in income - would see a dramatic decline in their after-tax income - a drop of 8.7%, or $116,000.

The CNN Money senior writer noted:

Jason Furman, a newly appointed senior economic adviser to Obama, said his preliminary response is that the report’s findings bear out what Obama’s campaign has been saying: that he’s for the middle class.

At the expense of the rich, apparently. Just this afternoon, the Associated Press reported:

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama on Friday called for higher payroll taxes on wage-earners making more than $250,000 annually, a step that would affect the wealthiest 3 percent of Americans.

The presidential candidate told senior citizens in Ohio that it is unfair for middle-class earners to pay the Social Security tax “on every dime they make,” while millionaires and billionaires pay it on only “a very small percentage of their income.”

The 6.2 percent payroll tax is now applied to all wages up to $102,000 a year, which covers the entire amount for most Americans. Under Obama’s plan, the tax would not apply to wages between that amount and $250,000. But all annual salaries above the quarter-million-dollar amount would be taxed under his plan, Obama said.

I know what you may be thinking. It’s about time the rich starting paying their fair share of taxes. However, last fall, the Washington, D.C.-based tax research organization The Tax Foundation looked at the latest release of Internal Revenue Service data on individual income taxes. In 2005:

The top-earning 25 percent of taxpayers (AGI over $62,068) earned 67.5 percent of the nation’s income, but they paid more than four out of every five dollars collected by the federal income tax (86 percent). The top 1 percent of taxpayers (AGI over $364,657) earned approximately 21.2 percent of the nation’s income (as defined by AGI), yet paid 39.4 percent of all federal income taxes. That means the top 1 percent of tax returns paid about the same amount of federal individual income taxes as the bottom 95 percent of tax returns.

Stephen Moore, a senior economics writer for the Wall Street Journal editorial board and a contributor to CNBC, wrote in the November/December 2007 issue of The American magazine:

Yes, income in America is skewed toward the rich. But taxes are skewed far, far more. The top 5 percent pay well over half the income taxes.

Maybe the rich ain’t so bad after all. Get rid of them, and who will pay for all those precious government programs?

But the question still remains. Are rich Americans leaving, or planning to leave, the country? Consider a poll conducted by Zogby International which asked adult Americans if they had ever considered moving outside the United States. The survey, which had more than 115,000 respondents, excluded anyone relocating offshore for less than two years and anyone who relocated because of government requirements, the military or their jobs. Bob Bauman of offshore experts The Sovereign Society wrote on October 16:

The Zogby results are shocking – especially compared to the entire U.S. population (now about 303,116,000). The numbers below are for households, not individuals.

1.6 million U.S. households already decided to move offshore and are headed in that direction.
Another 1.8 million households are seriously considering moving and are likely to do it. Many have taken preliminary steps.
• 7.7 million households are “somewhat seriously” considering moving and “may” do it.
• Nearly 3 million households are seriously considering buying a vacation home or other property outside the United States. Another 10 million are “somewhat” seriously considering it.

This means that almost 10% of U.S. households are considering leaving the country. Another 10% are considering living outside the country part-time. Most analysts are ignoring this silent massive emigration.

These would-be emigrant households plan to spend an average of US$260,000 on buying or building a house. They’re also planning to spend at least US$36,000 annually on living expenses outside the United States.

In total, they represent hundreds of billions of dollars leaving the U.S. economy each year.

Bauman quoted John Gaver of ActionAmerica.org, who said:

The problem is that increasingly, the wealthy perceive that they are under attack by their own government and they are taking the only rational option left open to them. They’re taking their wealth and leaving.

And regarding the number of wealthy Americans who have already left the country, Bauman wrote:

Every year, about 250,000 U.S. citizens and resident aliens leave America to make a new home in some other nation.

In 2005, the U.S. Bureau of the Census upped this estimate. They guessed that over 350,000 U.S. citizens and resident aliens would leave the United States permanently.

On February 15, John Gaver wrote in a piece on ActionAmerica.org:

Wealthy US citizens continue to leave the US at an alarming rate

Tax haven countries are recording significantly larger numbers of US applicants for permanent residence or second citizenship every year. Keep in mind that most of those expats are wealthy, since poor people can’t afford to leave. In fact, millions of poor people risk their lives in the back of trailers or crossing Arizona desert every year, to take advantage of our increasing welfare state. It is the wealthy, who are leaving and they represent lost US investment dollars and subsequently, LOST US JOBS

When big money is forced out of the US, it is the average citizen who has to make up the difference in higher taxes. The Income Tax and US government attacks on wealth is costing you money in more ways than you know.

Sources:

“What they’ll do to your tax bill”
Jeanne Sahadi
CNN Money, June 11, 2008

“Obama wants payroll tax on incomes above $250,000”
Charles Babington
Associated Press, June 13, 2008

“Summary of Latest Federal Individual Income Tax Data”
Gerald Prante
The Tax Foundation, October 5, 2007

“Guess Who Really Pays The Taxes”
Stephen Moore
The American, November/December 2007

“Why the Well-to-Do Are Escaping America”
Bob Bauman
The Sovereign Society, October 16, 2007

“US Taxpatriates Compiled by the Internal Revenue Service”
John Gaver
ActionAmerica.org, February 15, 2008

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Related Post

And from our sister blog Investorazzi.com today…

“George Soros Says Damage From Financial Crisis Has ‘Yet To Be Felt’”

“For the moment, the economy is actually showing considerable resilience and people think the worst is over. I’m afraid that that is not the case; we are heading for a recession, but we are not there yet.”

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