Consumer Sentiment: Half-Full Or Half-Empty?

One event. Two different interpretations. Is consumer sentiment improving, or getting worse? I’ll let you decide…

“US late Feb Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment rises to 70.8 UPDATE”
Forbes, February 29, 2008

Consumer sentiment, as measured by the Reuters/University of Michigan index, rose more than expected to 70.8 in late February from a reading of 69.6 in early February.

Economists polled by Thomson’s IFR Markets had expected sentiment to rise slightly to 70.0 in late February…

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Source: Sur La Table

“Consumer Sentiment Drops to 16-Year Low in February”
Reuters, February 29, 2008

U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a 16-year low in February, hitting levels that usually sound the alarm bells of recession, on worries about declining incomes and rising unemployment, a survey showed Friday.

Adding to the grim view, consumers’ expectations for the future also hit a 16-year low while worries about their ability to makes ends meet and the overall economy were as bad as they have been in decades, the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its main index of consumer sentiment fell to a 16-year low of 70.8 in February from 78.4 in January.

This was the final reading for February and was the lowest since February 1992. It was up slightly from the preliminary February result reported earlier in the month of 69.6, which also would have been the lowest reading since February 1992.

“Consumer confidence remained at the same low level that was recorded during the recession periods of the mid-1970s, the early 1980s and the early 1990s,” the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.

“The minuscule gain from the mid-month reading did not alter the basic fact that the extent of the recent decline has consistently been associated with a subsequent recession period,” it added…

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