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East Coast Hurricane

According to AccuWeather this afternoon, the East Coast of the United States could be in for a rough weekend. From their website, AccuWeather is saying that a low pressure system in the Atlantic is building up to become the first tropical system this year that may threaten the East Coast by this weekend. Later tonight the low could be upgraded to a tropical depression, the seventh of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. A shift in the jet stream will pull it toward the East Coast and contribute to its intensification. By the end of the week, the low could develop into Tropical Storm Gabrielle. The forecasting service is warning:

Residents and business interests along the East Coast from South Carolina to southern New England should be prepared for the potential development of the tropical system.

Elsewhere on the site it was reported:

As the system moves west or northwest, it will probably become a well-organized tropical system and could become a storm and even a hurricane. A consensus of the various computer models suggests a track toward the Carolina coast on Friday and Saturday.

AccuWeather’s severe weather expert Henry Margusity had this to say about the developing system in his “Meteorological Madness” blog this afternoon:

I had many questions on the storm, so let me answer from all.

1. Could this be another Floyd in regards to flooding? I don’t think so to that extent. I do think that if the storm hooks up with the front, we could have flooding of streams and creeks, but right now, I don’t think we will see the Delaware flood. It’s been a dry summer overall and if I remember correctly, Floyd occurred during a very wet summer.
2. Could Cape Code Get Hit? It will be close, but I think the storm will be turning out to sea and swiping Long Island.
3. Could it be a hurricane when it hits eastern Virginia and New Jersey? Yes it could be a cat 1 at that point, but most likely a tropical storm.

While I like the path that goes from Wilmington to Norfolk to Cape May then turning northeast out to sea, I can see the options of a storm just grazing the coast or even going as far west as I-95.

Here’s hoping that the low pressure system becomes a non-event. However, I bring up this topic for two reasons. First, in my June 28 post “A Different Kind Of Storm, Part 2” I talked about the major financial repercussions from a hurricane running rampant in this region of country. To recap:

A major hurricane making landfall at or near New York City will result in extensive flooding and heavy storm surges. Even a minor hurricane has the potential to submerge Lower Manhattan and the runways at JFK Airport. A direct hit on New York’s Long Island by a Category 3 or higher hurricane could cost $100 billion (as compared to Katrina’s $81 billion), according to a CBS News report last July 30. The same size storm hitting south of the City in central New Jersey would be catastrophic, with $200 billion in damages and lost business.

Second, in yesterday’s post I talked about the troubled National Flood Insurance Program. Already $20 billion in arrears from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and designated a high-risk program by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, a storm packing a Katrina-sized punch would most likely require a taxpayer-bailout of the federal program.

Even if this low pressure system turns out to be nothing, in an era of increased hurricane activity, it may be just a matter of time before a devastating hurricane barrels up the East Coast and results in significant economic and personal tragedy.