Boom2Bust.com

Choose Your Own Demise

MarketWatch columnist Paul Farrell has thrown down the gauntlet. Last night, he challenged readers of his column to a contest. Farrell said:

So here’s the new contest: Pick the No. 1 tipping point that’ll push us over the edge, into a recession and bear market… Folks, with so many tipping points, we have the makings of a perfect storm. But in our new poll, please go beyond the short-term. Please tell us: (1) When do you predict it will happen? And (2) Which of these “moments” or “events” will push America over the edge and into a recession and bear market? Later we’ll summarize the results … and offer strategies.

Apparently, Farrell has spent the last two years asking readers to identify potential triggers for a recession and bear market. The submissions range from “usual suspects” like the real estate bubble busting, to less obvious catalysts such as global wars fueled by climate change. Farrell predicts that “it’ll probably be some combo of multiple triggers, a perfect storm.” However, according to the rules you can choose only one “trigger” from the twenty listed in his column.

I’m sure that I’ll take part in the “contest.” But right now I’m thinking of that saying that goes, “It doesn’t matter who wins, because they’re all losers.”